Phase Space AI

RB Global

RBA · investment memo

Valuation margin
demonstrated − required CAGR
-14.5%
Required CAGR
19.0%
Demonstrated
4.5%
Terminal margin
18.0%
Exit multiple
15.0x
Company state
B

Risk & exit

Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.

Risk trigger
12% below the memo price
$96.81

A daily close below $96.81 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.

Thesis-invalidation conditions

Fundamental and falsifiable, never price-based. If one is satisfied the thesis is marked dead and the position is retained only by explicit decision.

Impairment case

Named cause: a large insurance carrier re-tenders its salvage contract. RBA discloses no customer concentration (§4c) yet explains three separate line movements by reference to unnamed "significant customer contracts", and CC&T GTV fell in FY2025 partly on *"the non-recurrence of certain significant customer contracts."* Automotive is 53% of GTV and insurance-carrier salvage is a small-N market. The observable loss of one national carrier would remove low-to-mid single-digit percent of GTV directly, and more through the operating leverage of a fixed yard-and-tow network. At a 16.0% operating m

Documents

RBA Catalyst Calendar RBA Financial Model Notes RBA Research RBA Trade Construction RBA Valuation