RB Global [RBA]
Rule applied: never fabricate a date. Every entry is either filed or labelled INFERRED.
| Date | Basis | Event | Why it moves the thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Early Aug 2026 | INFERRED from filing history — Q1'26 8-K 2026-05-04, Q3'25 10-Q 2025-11-06. Not company-confirmed. | Q2 2026 results | Whether the Q1'26 CC&T recovery (+12% lots, +27% GTV) persists. Q1 was the first positive CC&T lot print after FY2025's −13%. |
| Q3 2026 results (INFERRED late Oct/early Nov 2026) | INFERRED — Q3'25 10-Q filed 2025-11-06. Not company-confirmed. | J.M. Wood annualises into the comparative | J.M. Wood closed 14 July 2025 (filed date). From Q3'26 its contribution sits in both the base and the comparative, so Q3'26 is the first quarter in which reported GTV growth is a cleaner read on organic performance. |
| Q4 2026 results (INFERRED Feb 2027) | INFERRED — FY2025 10-K filed 2026-02-25. Not company-confirmed. | Smith Broughton annualises | Closed 28 November 2025 (filed date). Q4'26 is the first quarter with both bolt-ons fully in the base. Combined with the above, FY2027 is the first year of genuinely organic reported growth since 2022. |
| Passed — 21 June 2025 | 10-K, filed | SYNETIQ deconsolidated in the LKQ transaction | A negative contribution to reported growth through Q2'26. Its lapping in Q3'26 flatters the optic without any operational change. |
| Ongoing, no date | 10-K risk factors | North American catastrophic weather season | Insurance-salvage volume depends on it. FY2025 automotive growth was explicitly reduced by "the non-recurrence of significant catastrophic events in the prior year." Atlantic hurricane season runs Jun–Nov; RBA announces no event tied to it. |
| Ongoing, no date | 10-K forward-looking statements | Tariffs, including retaliatory tariffs | Named by the company as a specific uncertainty affecting results. International GTV grew 53% in Q1'26 and is the named mechanism (§5); tariff action on cross-border used-equipment flows attacks it directly. |
| Not disclosed | — | Customer contract renewals | RBA discloses no customer concentration yet attributes three separate MD&A line movements to unnamed "significant customer contracts". No renewal date is disclosed for any of them. Recording the absence rather than inventing a date. |
| Not disclosed | — | Formal revenue or margin guidance | RBA guides on adjusted EBITDA ranges in its releases but no forward guidance date is filed. |
EARNINGS_ESTIMATES trailing 30 days: 1 upward, 0 downward on both fiscal years and both quarterly
horizons. Mildly positive breadth — the only positive breadth of the three names in this run — and
it argues against the −6.0% target. Stated here rather than omitted because it cuts against the memo.
AV endpoint caveat: fiscal_date_ending is null on all 40 records; the fiscal year of each
estimate was inferred from magnitude against trailing actuals. Inference stated, not silently made.