RDDT · investment memo
max(own TTM operating margin 25.11%, growth-matched peer median 14.6%) - the memo's own words. FLAG: max() against a peer median is a clamp and valuation.md rule 1 prohibits clamping; here it resolves to Reddit's own figure. m_EBIT,T 25.1 <= m_gross,T 91.5 SATISFIED. Equal to, not below, trailing; the screen's 20.1% was the FY2025 margin measured against a TTM revenue base.
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
A daily close below $143.21 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Fundamental and falsifiable, never price-based. If one is satisfied the thesis is marked dead and the position is retained only by explicit decision.
The permanent-impairment scenario is not a volatility figure. It is this: > Named cause: a further step-down in search-engine and AI-answer referral traffic to Reddit, in the > United States, that removes logged-out DAUq faster than ARPU can compensate — while the disclosure that > would let an owner see it is withdrawn in Q3 2026. The mechanism is already visible in the filed series, not hypothesised: US logged-in DAUq growth +1%, US total DAUq growth +7%, and the company itself citing "third-party search engine algorithm changes" as the first-named driver of its user trajectory. Reddit does