Phase Space AI

Repligen Corporation

RGEN · investment memo

Valuation margin
demonstrated − required CAGR
-24.1%
Required CAGR
27.4%
Demonstrated
3.3%
Terminal margin
18.6%
Exit multiple
26.2x
Company state
B
Terminal margin basis

Median operating margin of the growth-matched comparator set rebuilt at RGEN's CORRECTED 12.5% growth rate (SIC 28/38, +/-50% growth band, mcap > $1bn, n=51). Demanding, not conservative: 10.4pp above the TTM GAAP margin of 8.2% and 2.6pp above the FY2026 guided ADJUSTED margin of 16.0%; below the FY2022 GAAP peak of 28.0%, achieved once at COVID volumes. Replaces the screen's 39.1%, which was never achieved on any basis and was in fact FY2025 profit divided by FY2017 revenue.

Risk & exit

Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.

Risk trigger
16% below the memo price
$122.52
Forward E[R]
vs a 0% floor
+12.4%

A daily close below $122.52 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.

Thesis-invalidation conditions

Fundamental and falsifiable, never price-based. If one is satisfied the thesis is marked dead and the position is retained only by explicit decision.

Impairment case

Type: MEASURED. Logged and scored. It does not reject the name.

Documents

RGEN Catalyst Calendar RGEN Financial Model Notes RGEN Research RGEN Trade Construction RGEN Valuation