RMD · investment memo
built from the opex bridge on a 62.5% terminal gross margin (9M FY26 actual 61.83%, Q3 FY26 62.24%; the +4.6pp eight-quarter trend 57.6% -> 62.2% is held to just +0.7pp of further expansion rather than extrapolated). Per valuation.md rule 2 the move away from trailing carries a causal bridge: the mask/consumable mix shift, masks +14.1% vs devices +8.7% over nine months at the higher gross margin.
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
A daily close below $182.08 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.
Cause: oral GLP-1 approval for OSA solves the persistence problem, and new PAP patient starts turn negative. The 10-K names this exact escalation ("oral versions… may be approved for the treatment of OSA"), and management's own concession — 30–40% one-year GLP-1 persistence — is the thing an oral formulation is designed to fix. If new starts go to −5% and masks decelerate to +5% with RCS flat, consolidated growth falls to roughly 1%. At 12x that path prices RMD near $150, a −27.5% permanent impairment before any multiple overshoot. Probability: 20% over five years. Not a going-concern case at