Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
Risk trigger 16% below the memo price
$15.50
Forward E[R] vs a 0% floor
+9.9%
A daily close below $15.50 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Thesis-invalidation conditions
Fundamental and falsifiable, never price-based. If one is satisfied the thesis is marked dead and the position is retained only by explicit decision.
Revenue growth falls below 16%. The implied path requires 15.8%. S is at 20.8% and decelerating monotonically from 45.8% over eight quarters. This is the invalidation, and it is a matter of arithmetic on the current trend: continuing the recent pace reaches 16% in roughly two years. The PASS is real and time-limited.
GAAP gross margin falls below 72%. Currently 74.0% TTM (74.7% prior year). Below 72% and the "not discounting to hold share" finding — the only clean answer available to the brief's CRWD question — is overturned.
Operating margin improvement stalls. +9.22pp TTM GAAP, +7.38pp ex-SBC. Below +3pp in a year and the Quality PASS, which rests entirely on the change, is at risk.
SBC as a percentage of revenue stops falling. 41.6% → 28.96% over three years is the only demonstrated evidence for the 12.5% terminal assumption. Flat for two consecutive quarters and the terminal margin is unsupported. (This is the test ZS already fails: its SBC ratio moved −0.20pp in a year.)
Deferred revenue growth falls below 5%. Already at +7.5% against revenue at +21.4% — the weakest signal in the name. Below 5% and the unbilled-RPO composition (60.9% of total, +47.9% YoY) becomes the dominant concern rather than a flag.
Free cash flow margin fails to recover above 6%. It went 8.77% → 4.24% while management guided improvement. Two more quarters below 6% and the operating-margin improvement is a working-capital effect.
Impairment case
Named cause: CrowdStrike and Microsoft compress SentinelOne's growth below 15% before its ex-SBC margin reaches a level that supports the equity, while the unbilled RPO tranche renegotiates. The evidence, none of it inferred: - CRWD is growing faster (+25.6% vs +20.8%) at the same gross margin and 4.9x the scale. Scale advantages in security compound through threat-data network effects. - S's own growth path: 45.8% → 33.1% → 22.9% → 20.8% over eight quarters. Monotone deceleration, no plateau. - NRR is unverifiable (§2b), so the expansion engine cannot be monitored — the single most important