SentinelOne [S]
As of 2026-07-29. Catalyst Criteria is MEASURED — informs monitoring, blocks nothing.
Every dated item is either a company-stated date or an inferred window explicitly labelled as inferred with the basis given. Nothing here is fabricated. Where I do not know a date, I say so — per the brief, a fabricated catalyst date is worse than an absent calendar.
| Date | Event | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | FQ2 FY2027 fiscal period ends | Certain — fiscal year ends 31 January |
| 2026-10-31 | FQ3 FY2027 fiscal period ends | Certain |
| 2027-01-31 | FY2027 fiscal year ends | Certain |
SentinelOne reports roughly five weeks after quarter end (FQ1 FY27 ended 2026-04-30; the FQ2 FY26 call in the available record followed a 2025-07-31 quarter end). No dates have been announced and I am not inventing any.
| Window | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| early September 2026 | FQ2 FY27 results | Half-year mark on the FY27 consensus of $1,200.2m (+19.9%). Invalidation trigger #1 — revenue growth below 16% — is tested here. Also the first report where the Prompt Security margin drag should be visible |
| early December 2026 | FQ3 FY27 results | Consensus for the quarter is $309.4m (33 analysts) |
| early-to-mid March 2027 | FY2027 full-year results + FY2028 guidance | The most important event on the calendar. Whether the "first full year of operating profit" claim landed, and the initial FY28 growth guide against the $1,412.3m consensus (+17.7%) |
| early June 2027 | FQ1 FY28 results | Just outside the 12-month horizon |
| Event | Company's own language | Expected window | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prompt Security acquisition close | "The purchase price for Prompt Security is approximately $180 million… The deal is expected to close in Q3 of this fiscal year" | Stated as FQ3 (quarter ending 2025-10-31 in the FY26 frame of that call). Should already have closed; confirm in the FQ1 FY27 10-Q rather than assuming | "immaterial ARR and revenue contribution" in FY26 with an "estimated 80 basis point impact to full year operating margin" — a quantified, disclosed dilution |
| First full fiscal year of operating profit | "we expect to sustain quarterly operating profitability and remain on track to deliver our first full year of operating profit this fiscal year" | FY2026, resolved by the March-2027 report | Non-GAAP. On GAAP, S runs a −29.7% operating margin. The claim is true and the basis must be stated every time it is cited |
| Purple AI / AI-SIEM attach | Named as a driver of net-retention expansion | Ongoing | No dollar figure has ever been disclosed for this motion — no TCV, no per-module ARR, no attach rate. Compare ZS, which disclosed $480m of Z-Flex TCV. A first quantitative disclosure would be a genuine catalyst |
| Metric | Where to get it | Trigger |
|---|---|---|
| Net revenue retention | RETIRED. Last numeric figure 129%, FQ1 FY23. Now "well into expansionary territory." Not reconstructible from any filed statement. Search every call for a conceded number | Any number below 110%. Until one appears, report INDETERMINATE — do not assume stable |
| Calculated billings | Reconstruct: revenue + Δ(ContractWithCustomerLiabilityCurrent + Noncurrent) from EDGAR XBRL. S has never reported it. AV's deferredRevenue is null for every quarter |
TTM growth < 15% (from +18.9%) |
| Deferred revenue growth | Same tags | < +5% (from +7.5% — already the weakest signal in the name) |
| Unbilled RPO share | Total RPO − total contract liabilities |
Rising while total RPO growth falls — composition and level deteriorating together |
| RPO duration | Ask on the call. An analyst asked in FQ2 FY26 and the CFO did not answer | Any disclosure at all would be new information |
| GAAP gross margin | Income statement | < 72% (from 74.0%) — would overturn the "not discounting" finding |
| SBC % of revenue | Cash-flow statement | Flat for two consecutive quarters (from 28.96%, down from 41.6%) — the terminal margin depends on this line continuing to fall |
| FCF margin | OCF − capex | Below 6% for two more quarters (from 4.24%, down from 8.77%) |
| RPO disclosure precision | 10-Q footnote | Any further rounding, or removal. Already rounded to $100m |
| Item | Why | Note |
|---|---|---|
| CrowdStrike quarterly reports | The direct competitor, growing faster (+25.6% vs +20.8%) at 4.9x the scale and the same gross margin. CRWD's growth relative to S's is the cleanest available read on the share question, since S's NRR is retired | CRWD fiscal year ends January, same as S — so the reports are near-simultaneous and directly comparable. Covered in reports/companies/CrowdStrike [CRWD]/ |
| Microsoft Defender / E5 bundling | The second competitive vector. Analyst competitive questioning of S has fallen to zero (15 Q&A mentions in FQ1 FY23 → 0 in FQ2 FY26), which may mean the market considers the question settled rather than resolved | No date |
| Estimate revisions | AV EARNINGS_ESTIMATES carries 7/30/60/90-day history natively. Current split: FY27 4 up / 8 down; FY28 9 up / 2 down |
Re-pull each month. Near-year down and out-year up means the Street is deferring the inflection, not abandoning it |
No catalyst is required for the thesis. Per criteria.md, time works for a long. The load-bearing item is the
March-2027 FY27 results and FY28 guidance, and the load-bearing absence is the net-retention number — which
no calendar entry can supply because the company stopped publishing it.