Phase Space AI

Financial Model Notes

SentinelOne [S]

SentinelOne [S] — Financial Model Notes

As of 2026-07-29. Every figure traceable to a named source. $m unless stated.


1. Verified inputs

Input Value Source Notes
Spot $18.53 Alpaca /v2/stocks/S/snapshot, latest trade 2026-07-29 Prior close $18.34 (2026-07-28) matches the screen's $18.335
Shares (used) 337,000,297 — BASIC AV BALANCE_SHEET, commonStockSharesOutstanding @2026-04-30 UNRESOLVED, FLAGGED — see below
Net cash +$812.5m Built below Screen had $656.8m — a $155.7m error
Debt $0 — none AV balance sheet: all debt fields null; CFO "no debt"
TTM revenue $1,049.0m Sum of AV quarterly periods 2025-07-31, 2025-10-31, 2026-01-31, 2026-04-30 — verified consecutive Matches the screen exactly
Fiscal year end 31 January AV OVERVIEW, FiscalYearEnd: January FQ1 FY27 = quarter ended 2026-04-30
Latest filing 10-Q, period end 2026-04-30 EDGAR 90 days old. Recency asserted
Splits NONE AV SPLITS{"symbol":"S","data":[]} Checked before any per-share figure, per the CRWD 4:1 cautionary case

Net cash build — @2026-04-30

Component Amount Tag / source
Cash and cash equivalents +153.2 AV cashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue
Short-term investments +503.6 AV shortTermInvestments
Long-term investments +155.7 AV longTermInvestmentsomitted by the screen
Debt 0.0 None exists
Net cash +812.5

Cross-checked against a source AV did not produce: the CFO's FQ2 FY26 prepared remarks — "we ended the quarter with $1.2 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and investments and no debt." The balance has since been reduced by the ~$180m Prompt Security purchase and by operating burn, consistent with $812.5m.

The share-count problem — stated, not silently resolved

SentinelOne is dual-class (Class A / Class B). All three EDGAR share-count concept endpoints return 404 for CIK 0001583708:

Concept Result
us-gaap:CommonStockSharesOutstanding 404 — does not exist
us-gaap:CommonStockSharesIssued 404 — does not exist
dei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding 404 — does not exist

This is exactly the brief's warning that "dimensional XBRL tagging does not survive SEC aggregation" for dual-class issuers. I therefore use AV's 337,000,297, which agrees with the screen.

Why this is flagged rather than accepted. S carries SBC at 28.96% of revenue ($303.8m TTM). The fully-diluted count including unvested RSUs and options is materially higher than 337.0m, and every per-share figure in S_Valuation.md is therefore an upper bound on the share-count dimension. The magnitude is not determinable from available data, which is why evidence_grade is C+ and why S_Trade_Construction.md §3 routes the uncertainty into position size rather than into the valuation assumption (valuation.md rule 5).

For contrast, ZS resolved cleanly: basic 160,741,000 (balance sheet), cover-page 161,709,525 (dei), and the company's own 168.0m fully-diluted guidance figure — three independent readings that bracket each other.


2. Income statement — quarterly, 14 periods (AV normalised)

Quarter ended Revenue Gross profit GM% Operating income OM% R&D SBC SBC % rev OCF Capex
2026-04-30 276.7 198.7 71.8 −77.8 −28.1 95.8 74.9 27.1 38.5 0.4
2026-01-31 271.2 205.1 75.6 −79.9 −29.4 89.4 79.7 29.4 4.4 6.7
2025-10-31 258.9 191.1 73.8 −73.3 −28.3 83.1 75.3 29.1 21.0 5.1
2025-07-31 242.2 181.7 75.0 −80.6 −33.3 79.1 73.9 30.5 −1.0 6.2
2025-04-30 229.0 172.5 75.3 −87.5 −38.2 72.3 68.7 30.0 52.3 6.9
2025-01-31 225.5 168.5 74.7 −80.3 −35.6 74.6 74.1 32.9 −3.4 5.5
2024-10-31 210.6 157.4 74.7 −89.1 −42.3 70.5 70.2 33.3 −7.2 5.5
2024-07-31 198.9 148.2 74.5 −79.4 −39.9 63.6 64.7 32.5 2.3 7.8
2024-04-30 186.4 136.2 73.1 −80.6 −43.3 58.3 58.6 31.4 42.0 8.3
2024-01-31 174.2 125.9 72.3 −81.2 −46.6 56.4 53.6 30.8 −6.2 4.5
2023-10-31 164.2 120.4 73.3 −81.5 −49.6 52.3 54.9 33.4 −22.2 7.4
2023-07-31 149.4 105.5 70.6 −100.4 −67.2 54.2 52.8 35.4 −11.9 3.3
2023-04-30 133.4 90.8 68.1 −115.4 −86.5 55.3 68.7 41.6 −28.1 3.5
2023-01-31 126.1 86.3 68.5 −100.0 −79.3 53.9 46.1 36.6 −22.1 3.5

TTM aggregates

TTM to 2026-04-30 TTM to 2025-04-30 Change
Revenue 1,049.0 864.0 +21.4%
Gross profit 776.6 645.6 +20.3%
Gross margin 74.0% 74.7% −0.7pp
Operating income −311.6 −336.3
Operating margin −29.70% −38.92% +9.22pp
R&D 348.1 (33.2%) 281.0 (32.5%) +0.7pp
SBC 303.8 (28.96%) 266.1 (30.80%) −1.84pp
Operating margin ex-SBC −0.74% −8.12% +7.38pp
Operating cash flow 62.9 101.3 −37.9%
Capex 18.4 25.5 −27.8%
Free cash flow 44.5 (4.24%) 75.8 (8.77%) −4.53pp

The three model-relevant observations:

  1. The operating leverage is real and is NOT an SBC artefact. GAAP +9.22pp, ex-SBC +7.38pp. The two series move together. This is the substantive difference from ZS, whose GAAP was −0.14pp and ex-SBC −0.33pp.
  2. Ex-SBC operating margin has crossed to −0.74% from −8.12%. On a cash-cost basis S is at breakeven.
  3. Free cash flow went backwards, 8.77% → 4.24%, against management guidance that it would improve in H2. OCF fell 37.9% in absolute terms while revenue grew 21.4%. This is the one metric contradicting the improvement story, and the deferred-revenue line at +7.5% is where it lives.

3. Billings and backlog — reconstructed

Method: calculated billings = revenue + Δ(ContractWithCustomerLiabilityCurrent + ContractWithCustomerLiabilityNoncurrent), EDGAR XBRL. The method was independently validated to 0.06% against Zscaler's own published billings figure — see Zscaler [ZS]/ZS_Research.md §2a — so the series is trustworthy. S has never published a billings figure of its own, so no direct validation on this name is possible.

Quarter ended Revenue Def. rev. total Billings Bill YoY Total RPO RPO YoY Unbilled RPO Unbilled % of RPO
2026-04-30 276.7 586.2 229.8 +13.6% 1,500.0 ᴿ +28.9% 913.8 60.9%
2026-01-31 271.2 633.1 334.8 +11.7% 1,400.0 ᴿ +19.8% 766.9 54.8%
2025-10-31 258.9 569.5 281.6 +36.6% 1,300.0 ᴿ +34.1% 730.5 56.2%
2025-07-31 242.2 546.8 243.6 +16.9% 1,200.0 ᴿ +27.1% 653.2 54.4%
2025-04-30 229.0 545.4 202.2 +22.6% 1,163.4 +33.0% 618.0 53.1%
2025-01-31 225.5 572.1 299.6 +12.6% 1,169.1 +30.5% 597.0 51.1%
2024-10-31 210.6 498.0 206.1 +24.6% 969.7 +25.0% 471.7 48.6%
2024-07-31 198.9 502.6 208.5 +28.5% 944.3 +39.7% 441.7 46.8%
2024-04-30 186.4 493.1 164.9 +21.6% 874.9 +44.9% 381.8 43.6%
2024-01-31 174.2 514.5 266.1 +49.5% 896.2 +47.1% 381.7 42.6%
2023-10-31 164.2 422.6 165.4 +32.7% 776.0 +50.0% 353.4 45.5%
2023-07-31 149.4 421.4 162.3 −5.6% 676.1 +52.0% 254.7 37.7%

ᴿ = disclosed ROUNDED to the nearest $100m in the filing. The XBRL values are literally 1200000000, 1300000000, 1400000000, 1500000000. Corroborated by the CFO: "remaining performance obligations grew 26% to $1.2 billion." At ±$50m, the FQ1 FY27 RPO growth rate spans +24.6% to +33.1% — an 8.5pp band on every figure in the last four rows.

TTM billings $1,089.8m, +18.9% — BELOW revenue at +21.4%. Deferred revenue +7.5%; unbilled RPO +47.9%; unbilled share 53.1% → 60.9%. The RPO growth is duration, and the duration figure was asked for on the call and not given.

Data note: AV's deferredRevenue field returns None for every S quarter, as it does for ZS. The contract-liability figures are EDGAR XBRL.


4. Balance sheet — @2026-04-30

$m
Cash and equivalents 153.2
Short-term investments 503.6
Long-term investments 155.7
Accounts receivable, net 180.7
Goodwill 912.7
Intangible assets 119.0
Total current liabilities 672.3
Contract liabilities — current 510.0
Contract liabilities — non-current 76.2
Debt 0.0
Total shareholders' equity 1,438.1

Receivables check: AR $180.7m, +16.6% YoY against revenue +20.8%. Growing 4.2pp slower than revenue — no warning signal.

Goodwill of $912.7m against $1,438.1m of equity — 63.5%. Largely Attivo, PingSafe and Prompt Security. Worth noting for impairment risk in the bear case, though no impairment indicator is present.


5. Forecast drivers

Driver FY2026 (ended 2026-01-31) FY2027 FY2028 Basis
Revenue $1,001.3m actual (+21.9%); guided $998m–$1,020m $1,200.2m (+19.9%) $1,412.3m (+17.7%) Actual; then AV EARNINGS_ESTIMATES, 34 analysts
EPS (non-GAAP consensus) −$0.7301 (14 analysts) −$0.5719 (14) AV
Gross margin (non-GAAP) 78.5–79.0% guided Company
Operating margin first full year of non-GAAP operating profit Company. On GAAP, −32.09%
Prompt Security drag ~80bp on FY26 operating margin Company
SBC % of revenue 28.96% TTM actual (from 41.6%) modelled to 12.5% by FY32 Demonstrated trend supports the direction
Terminal margin FY32 5.5% GAAP Built via the opex bridge, S_Valuation.md §2

NTM revenue used for the 12-month target: $1,306.3m (half FY27 + half FY28, spanning Aug-2026 → Jul-2027).

Estimate revision history (AV native 7/30/60/90-day):

90d 60d 30d 7d Up / Down, 30d Read
FY28 EPS −0.6114 −0.6122 −0.5571 −0.5719 9 / 2 Improving
FY27 EPS −0.7178 −0.7178 −0.7268 −0.7301 4 / 8 Deteriorating
FQ3 FY27 EPS −0.1518 −0.1518 −0.1468 −0.1468 5 / 1 Improving

Near-year down, out-year up: the Street is deferring the profitability inflection by roughly a year, not abandoning it. Consistent with the FCF-margin reversal.


6. Data-provenance defects encountered

# Defect Magnitude
1 Screen net_cash omitted $155.7m of long-term investments while reporting net_cash_complete: true −$155.7m, 19.0% understated; EV overstated 2.8%
2 EDGAR returns no share-count concept at all for this dual-class issuer — CommonStockSharesOutstanding, CommonStockSharesIssued and dei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding all 404 Share count unverifiable against EDGAR. AV's 337,000,297 adopted with an explicit flag, never silently
3 AV deferredRevenue returns None for all 26 quarters Fatal to billings work if unnoticed; worked around via EDGAR
4 AV INCOME_STATEMENT returns the string "None" (not null, not a number) for totalRevenue in at least one older quarter Type defect — crashes naive float() parsing silently mid-series
5 AV transcript coverage: 4 of the last 18 quarters; the newest available call is FQ2 FY26, a year old The FQ1 FY27 call (quarter ended 2026-04-30) is absent. Mention-frequency series is sparse and stale
6 AV transcript quarter labels for S appear to use the fiscal quarter (2026Q2 = FQ2 FY26, quarter ended 2025-07-31), whereas for ZS the same field is offset +1 calendar quarter from the call date Inconsistent labelling convention across tickers. Any cross-name time series keyed on the label misaligns
7 The issuer discloses total RPO rounded to the nearest $100m in the last four quarters, against exact figures previously ±$50m ⇒ ±4.3pp on every RPO growth rate
8 The issuer has retired the numeric net-revenue-retention disclosure — last figure 129% (FQ1 FY23), now "well into expansionary territory" The primary operating metric for a land-and-expand business is unavailable and not reconstructible
9 Screen terminal margin 10.7%, labelled "industry median," is a universe median (sic2 = None universe-wide) +5.2pp vs the built 5.5% — a 1.95x overstatement of terminal earnings power, flattering the name
10 AV SPLITS Correctly returns empty. No split; the CRWD trap does not apply
11 AV D&A sign / ebitda field Not triggered. The field was not used regardless, per the brief