Phase Space AI

NuScale Power

SMR · investment memo

Valuation margin
demonstrated − required CAGR
-109.1%
Required CAGR
124.2%
Demonstrated
15.1%
Terminal margin
Exit multiple
22.5x
Company state
D
Terminal margin basis

NULL. The memo used 13.5%, described as a 'growth-matched peer median (subject is pre-profit)'. THAT IS NOT AN ESTIMATE OF ANYTHING ABOUT NUSCALE. The company's own TTM operating margin is -3,813%; its gross margin is 23.8% against an INFLECTION standard of ~50%; revenue fell 96% year on year in the latest quarter; and first commercial module delivery is 2031 at the earliest. The memo names no mechanism - no cohort, no contribution-margin bridge, no formally guided long-term operating model - by which a pre-revenue reactor developer reaches a positive terminal EBIT margin, and a peer median substituted for an absent mechanism is exactly what valuation.md forbids. Recording 13.5% as though it were a derived terminal margin would launder a placeholder into the field the book ranks on. The memo's figure is preserved below for traceability but is NOT the contract value.

Risk & exit

Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.

Risk trigger
24% below the memo price
$6.20

A daily close below $6.20 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.

Thesis-invalidation conditions

Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.

Impairment case

Logged and scored; it rejects nothing. Inverse-volatility sizing is the active control — realised volatility is 100.0%. ---

Documents

NuScale Catalyst Calendar 2026-07-27 NuScale Criteria and Valuation 2026-07-29 NuScale Research Document 2026-07-27 NuScale Trade Construction 2026-07-27 NuScale Valuation Analysis 2026-07-27