SharkNinja

SN · investment memo

Valuation margin
demonstrated − required CAGR

+5.9%

Required CAGR

13.9%

Demonstrated

19.8%

Terminal margin

15.0%

Exit multiple

17.0x

Company state

Risk & exit

Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.

Risk trigger
12% below the memo price

$141.50

A daily close below $141.50 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.

Thesis-invalidation conditions

Fundamental and falsifiable, never price-based. If one is satisfied the thesis is marked dead and the position is retained only by explicit decision.

Category disaggregation: Food Prep + Beauty & Home Environment combined growth falling below 15% YoY. At FY2025 they grew 36.0% combined and supplied 72.3% of total growth.
FY2025
Same-quarter DSO (filed AR, not AV's) exceeding 100 days at a fiscal year end. FY2025 year-end was 72.4d against FY2024's 64.7d.
FY2025
Customer A exceeding 27% of net sales. It has gone 19.9% → 23.1% → 23.8%.
Advertising falling below 9.0% of net sales — margin bought by starving the brand, which the terminal margin explicitly does not assume.

Impairment case

Named cause: a failed category launch coinciding with the receivable normalising. The mechanism is specific. 72.3% of FY2025 growth came from Food Prep and Beauty & Home Environment. If the FY2027 adjacent-category launch does not take — and there is no contract, backlog or RPO that says it will — consolidated growth reverts to the legacy categories' 6.3%. Simultaneously, a retailer that has extended terms (AR +31.6% vs revenue +15.7%) tightens them, and the working-capital release that has been funding growth reverses. Quantified: at 6% revenue growth and a 12.0% operating margin (FY2024's le

Documents

SN Catalyst Calendar SN Financial Model Notes SN Research SN Trade Construction SN Valuation

Generated from each name's analysis.json. Figures are research output, not investment advice. Gaps are shown as “—” rather than filled: a missing input is recorded as indeterminate, never estimated.