Phase Space AI

Trade Construction

SharkNinja [SN]

SharkNinja [SN] — Trade Construction

The memo issues no position verdict. This section states what a position would look like if the book chose to take one, and what would invalidate it.

Vehicle: EQUITY

Equity is the default and needs no argument (MEMO_BRIEF.md §Vehicle). No LEAP argument is made because I did not measure implied volatility against trailing 252-day realised vol, which the framework requires before a LEAP is admissible. Trailing 252-day realised vol is 41.6% (screen record). IV not measured — no options structure is proposed. An unmeasured IV/RV spread is not an argument, and the framework's rule is that absent an argument the vehicle is equity.

Entry and invalidation

• Thesis horizon: 3–5 years (the implied-path test is the primary output; the 12-month target is UNIDENTIFIED, so a 12-month trade has no anchor).
• Invalidation — quantified, checkable quarterly, from disclosure that already exists:
• Category disaggregation: Food Prep + Beauty & Home Environment combined growth falling below 15% YoY. At FY2025 they grew 36.0% combined and supplied 72.3% of total growth.
• Same-quarter DSO (filed AR, not AV's) exceeding 100 days at a fiscal year end. FY2025 year-end was 72.4d against FY2024's 64.7d.
• Customer A exceeding 27% of net sales. It has gone 19.9% → 23.1% → 23.8%.
• Advertising falling below 9.0% of net sales — margin bought by starving the brand, which the terminal margin explicitly does not assume.

Sizing constraint

size_bucket: large ($22.9bn market cap), 41.6% realised vol. Size constrains sizing, never admission. The binding sizing input is evidence_grade B and the fact that the valuation PASS is contingent on the exit multiple (flip point 14–15x against a 17.0x base, and a 9.6x warranted multiple at steady state). Per valuation.md rule 5, uncertainty reduces position size, never the operating assumption — so the 15.0% terminal margin stands and the size does not.