Phase Space AI

SanDisk

SNDK · investment memo

Valuation margin
demonstrated − required CAGR
-4.8%
Required CAGR
36.4%
Demonstrated
31.6%
Terminal margin
18.4%
Exit multiple
22.6x
Company state
Terminal margin basis

Semis/optical cohort median of positive operating margins (n=22 of 25). SanDisk's own FY2025 operating margin is -18.7%, so max(own, cohort median) reduces to the cohort median - the PRE-PROFIT branch, and it is named as such. Replaces a hardcoded 20.0% used in the 2026-07-28 rescore. SanDisk_Trade_Construction_2026-07-27.md s3A.

Risk & exit

Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.

Risk trigger
25% below the memo price
$821.84

A daily close below $821.84 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.

Thesis-invalidation conditions

Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.

Impairment case

Not stated. No permanent-loss case with a named cause is on file. A valuation bear case is not an impairment case.

Documents

SanDisk Catalyst Calendar 2026-07-27 SanDisk Research Document 2026-07-27 SanDisk Trade Construction 2026-07-27 SanDisk Valuation Analysis 2026-07-27