Phase Space AI

Snowflake

SNOW · investment memo

Valuation margin
demonstrated − required CAGR
+2.6%
Required CAGR
30.9%
Demonstrated
33.5%
Terminal margin
Exit multiple
8.0x
Company state
C
Terminal margin basis

NOT UNDERWRITTEN, and null is the correct record. The memo's primary instrument is an EV/SALES reverse DCF, on which a terminal operating margin is not required. What the memo reports is the INVERSE - the terminal EBIT margin the price REQUIRES at 33.5% growth on an EBIT-basis exit: 48.3% at 15x, 36.2% at 20x, 29.0% at 25x, 24.1% at 30x, against a current non-GAAP operating margin of ~+6.1% (GAAP -26.11% plus SBC at 32.2% of revenue) - a 30.1pp gap at a 20x exit. The screen's stored value is documented in this same folder as a defect: the Tier-1 record assigned EXACTLY 0.107 to four of the five cluster names as an 'industry median of mature profitable peers', applying the same 10.7% to a 66%-gross-margin consumption business and an 86%-gross-margin seat business, and it produced 'reverse DCF unsolvable in range'. It is not adopted here.

Risk & exit

Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.

Risk trigger
14% below the memo price
$243.97
Forward E[R]
vs a 0% floor
+17.4%

A daily close below $243.97 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.

Thesis-invalidation conditions

Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.

Impairment case

Type: MEASURED. Logged and scored on every name; it does not reject the name. Named cause: renewal-cycle capacity right-sizing on a rollover-eligible RPO base. Going-concern: not argued. See §9 of the research document for the balance-sheet basis. Full reasoning, the mechanism, and why the probabilities are what they are: SNOW_Research.md §9.

Documents

SNOW Catalyst Calendar SNOW Financial Model Notes SNOW Research SNOW Trade Construction SNOW Valuation