Catalyst Calendar

SPS Commerce [SPSC]

SPS Commerce, Inc. [SPSC] — Catalyst Calendar

Catalyst Criteria is MEASURED — monitoring only. Per the brief, a fabricated catalyst date is worse than an absent calendar. Every row is a filed date or explicitly marked not disclosed.

Dated and disclosed

Date	Event	Source	Why it matters
2025-02-04 (effective)	Carbon6 acquisition closes — $212.5m total consideration	FY2025 10-K Note B	The anniversary is the single most important date on this calendar: after 2026-02-04, reported growth = organic. Q1-2026 printed +5.8%.
2026-02-10 / 2026-02-12	8-Ks filed (accessions 0001092699-26-000007, -000008)	EDGAR submissions index	Content not reviewed in this run — flagged as unread, not characterised
2026-02-19	FY2025 10-K filed	accession 0001092699-26-000012	Source of the Carbon6 pro forma and the customer-count decomposition used throughout this memo
2026-04-10	8-K filed (accession 0001092699-26-000028, reporting date 2026-04-10)	EDGAR	Unread — flagged
2026-04-30	Q1-2026 results. Revenue $192.1m (+6%); GAAP EPS $0.53 vs $0.58; Q2 guide $194.5–196.5m (+4–5%); FY2026 guide $796–802m (+6–7%); MAX AI product launch announced	8-K 0001092699-26-000042, Ex-99.1	The quarter and the guide on which the Valuation Criteria FAIL rests
2026-05-20 / 2026-05-21	8-K filed (accession 0001092699-26-000051)	EDGAR	Unread — flagged
2026-05-28	8-K filed (accession 0001092699-26-000054) — most recent filing of any kind	EDGAR	Unread — flagged. Note: two months of filing silence since.

The imminent event

Q2-2026 results. The date is not announced in any filing reviewed and I will not invent one. For pattern only, and explicitly not a forecast, the company's recent reporting dates were:

Quarter	Reported
Q2-2025	2025-07-30
Q3-2025	2025-10-30
FY2025	2026-02-19
Q1-2026	2026-04-30

Every one falls in the last three days of the month following quarter-end. On that pattern the Q2-2026 print is due imminently, and the stock has risen +16.5% in five sessions (58.98 on 2026-07-23 → 70.02 on 2026-07-29) into it. That move is the largest short-horizon signal on this name and this memo does not explain it — no filing was made in that window.

What Q2 settles: guidance is $194.5–196.5m (+4–5%). A print above ~$205m (>+9%) would break the deceleration and overturn the Valuation Criteria FAIL. A print in line confirms it.

Undated but company-named

Event	Source	Status
MAX — "our new set of AI capabilities … embedded into existing supply chain workflows and powered by proprietary network data"	Q1-2026 release, CEO quote	Launched (announced 2026-04-30). No pricing, no customer count, no revenue contribution, no timeline disclosed anywhere. This is the only named forward mechanism and it is entirely unquantified.
Further acquisitions	FY2025 10-K: "Selectively Pursue Strategic Acquisitions … We plan to continue to evaluate potential acquisitions"	Standing intent, no pipeline disclosed. Given the pattern (four deals in fourteen months, $424m for the two large ones), a further deal inside 12 months is plausible but has no date and is not treated as a catalyst.
Carbon6 internal-control integration	FY2025 10-K: "Our assessment of the effectiveness of internal control over financial reporting as of December 31, 2026 will include Carbon6"	Dated by the company. Carbon6 was excluded from the FY2025 ICFR assessment; the FY2026 10-K will be the first to cover it. A control finding there would be material.

Contractual and capital-allocation schedule

Share repurchase programmes: a 2022 programme (50,000 authorised units, 40,471 used, 9,529 remaining per the FY2025 10-K table), plus 2024 and 2025 programmes. $47.1m repurchased in Q1-2026. Treasury rose 2,531,171 → 3,292,276 shares in the quarter.
Operating lease liabilities: $6,618k total (current $1,918k + non-current $4,700k). Immaterial.
No debt, no maturities, no covenants. There is no refinancing calendar on this name.
Deferred revenue $85,700k (current $80,382 + non-current $5,318) on $762m TTM revenue ≈ 41 days. There is effectively no backlog cushion: most contracts are cancellable on 30–90 days' notice.

Not disclosed — stated as absent

Q2-2026 earnings date. Not announced in any reviewed filing.
No organic growth guidance, ever. The word "organic" appears once across the FY2023, FY2024 and FY2025 10-Ks combined.
No net revenue retention, gross retention or churn disclosure, and therefore no date on which one would be updated.
No MAX revenue milestone, customer target or launch cadence.
No investor day located in the filings.
Consensus estimate revision dates unavailable (Alpha Vantage quota; Consensus Criteria INDETERMINATE).

Monitoring triggers (not calendar events)

Q2-2026 revenue vs the $194.5–196.5m guide — the single event that can overturn the Valuation FAIL.
Any acquisition announcement. It resets the growth-anniversary clock and converts cash to goodwill; check consideration ÷ acquired revenue against the ~5.0x Carbon6 benchmark.
Recurring revenue customer count in the FY2026 10-K. With Carbon6's 8,500 now in the base, the FY2026 net add is the first clean read on organic customer growth since 2024. The FY2025 organic figure was ~750 (+1.7%).
Whether ARPU continues to be reported on a period-average denominator now that the acquired cohort is fully in both the beginning and ending counts — the artifact that flattered FY2025 reverses in FY2026.

Generated from each name's analysis.json. Figures are research output, not investment advice. Gaps are shown as “—” rather than filled: a missing input is recorded as indeterminate, never estimated.