Phase Space AI

Financial Model Notes

SPS Commerce [SPSC]

SPS Commerce, Inc. [SPSC] — Financial Model Notes

Every figure traced to a filed document. USD thousands unless marked.

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1. Revenue — quarterly, as filed (TTM from four quarterly XBRL periods, never last-FY)

TTM to 2026-03-31 = 762,077 (FY2025 751,505 − Q1-2025 181,549 + Q1-2026 192,121). Matches the screen exactly.

Fiscal years: FY2021 385,276 · FY2022 450,875 · FY2023 536,910 · FY2024 637,765 · FY2025 751,505. - 3-year CAGR FY2022→FY2025 = 18.57% — this is the screen's 18.6%. - 4-year CAGR FY2021→FY2025 = 18.18%.

Q1-2026 is the first sequential revenue decline in the disclosed series ($192,652 → $192,121). The "100th consecutive quarter of revenue growth" claim is measured year-over-year and survives; the sequential print does not.

Guidance (Q1-2026 release, 2026-04-30): Q2-2026 revenue $194.5–196.5m (+4–5%); FY2026 revenue $796.0–802.0m (+6–7%); FY2026 GAAP diluted EPS $2.66–2.69; non-GAAP diluted EPS $4.73–4.76; adjusted EBITDA $262.8–267.3m (+14–16%); diluted share count 37.3m.

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2. Income statement

Three things the screen's op_margin_delta_pp: +1.8 hides: 1. It is FY2025-vs-FY2024. The current direction is −1.5pp (12.8% vs 14.3%). 2. GAAP operating income fell 5.4% YoY in Q1-2026 ($24,559 vs $25,956) on +5.8% revenue. 3. Amortisation of acquired intangibles nearly tripled FY2023→FY2025 ($13.7m → $37.2m) — an acquisition-driven charge that is then added back in the non-GAAP figures used to guide.

EPS cross-check (the brief's net income ÷ shares ≈ filed EPS test), Q1-2026: 19,729 ÷ 37,442 (weighted diluted, thousands) = $0.527 vs filed diluted $0.53. ✓ Basic: 19,729 ÷ 37,379 = $0.528 vs filed basic $0.53. ✓ Single share class; no Up-C, no NCI, no trap.

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3. Balance sheet and net cash — verified clean

Net cash = $154,271 (cash only). $147,653 if operating lease liabilities are deducted — a 0.3% effect on EV, immaterial, and disclosed here so the choice is visible.

The screen's $154,271 is correct. No convertibles, no marketable securities portfolio, no finance leases, no TRA. The MarketableSecuritiesNoncurrent tag exists in companyfacts but is a historical concept with no current-period value — a filer-level trap that did not fire here.

Share count: cover page dei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding = 36,712,702 (as of the 2026-04-30 filing date). Balance sheet at 2026-03-31: 40,240,558 issued less 3,292,276 treasury = 36,948,282 outstanding. Both are correct for their respective dates; the screen used the cover figure, which is the more recent. Difference 0.6% — immaterial.

Receivables quality: DSO ≈ 31 days ($72.0m gross ÷ $192.1m × 91). Receivables fell while revenue grew. No build, no channel exposure, no single distributor. Largest customer <1% of revenue for each of FY2023, FY2024 and FY2025.

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4. The acquisition ledger and the organic bridge

Goodwill trajectory: $143,663 (FY2021) → $197,284 (FY2022) → $199,001 (Q1-2023) → $540,836 (Q1-2026).

The organic bridge — the company's own numbers

Carbon6 pro forma (FY2025 10-K Note B, unaudited):

• Pro forma growth FY2024 → FY2025 = +11.0%, against reported +17.8%.
• ⇒ Carbon6 alone = 6.8pp, or 38%, of reported FY2025 growth.

Independent corroboration (auditor's ICFR scope exclusion, a different disclosure written for a different purpose): "Carbon6 … represented … approximately 5% of consolidated revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025" → ~$37.6m of FY2025 revenue, i.e. 33% of the $113.7m FY2025 revenue increase from one deal.

The pro forma still overstates organic, because it adjusts for Carbon6 only. SupplyPike (5 months in FY2024, 12 in FY2025), Traverse (≈7.8 months / 12) and Vision33 (≈8.7 months / 12) each contribute incremental acquired months to FY2025 that the pro forma leaves in. SupplyPike's revenue is not disclosed and I have not estimated a point figure for it.

Estimated organic FY2025 revenue growth: ~9–11% (floor = the company's own audited pro forma of 11.0% less the un-adjusted 2024 deals). Reported: 17.8%. Screened: 18.6%. Roughly 40–45% of FY2025 reported growth was acquired.

Customer count — 92% of net adds were bought

Prior-year acquired adds: ~50 customers from Traverse (May 2024), ~200 from SupplyPike (July 2024).

ARPU — a period-average denominator

Company definition: "annualized recurring revenues for the period divided by the average of the beginning and ending number of recurring revenue customers."

Reported: $13,300 (FY2024) → $14,350 (FY2025), +8%. Verified: $718,000 ÷ ((45,350 + 54,600) / 2 = 49,975) = $14,367 ✓

The 8,500 Carbon6 customers arrived in February 2025 — mid-period. They add ~11 months of (low) revenue to the numerator but only half of 8,500 to the denominator. Reported ARPU therefore rose 8% in the same year 15% of the customer base arrived at explicitly below-average ARPU. No organic ARPU is disclosed.

Recurring revenues: $718.0m in FY2025, +20%, = 96% of total (94% in FY2024 and FY2023).

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5. Model conventions used

• TTM built from four filed quarterly XBRL periods, never the last fiscal year.
• Terminal margin = TTM realised EBIT margin 15.34%, not a forecast, not a peer median.
• Forward revenue in SPSC_Valuation.md is company guidance (Q2-2026 and FY2026) plus a labelled +6.0% extrapolation for FY2027 quarters. No consensus was used (Alpha Vantage quota; Consensus Criteria INDETERMINATE).
• Historical EV/Sales uses a share-count and net-cash timeline interpolated between filed balance-sheet dates; SPSC's share count moved <4% across the window so the approximation is minor here (materially less so than for YOU).
• Filing recency asserted: latest 10-Q filed 2026-04-30 for the period ended 2026-03-31, 90 days before the memo date. Most recent filing of any type is an 8-K dated 2026-05-28 — two months of filing silence, with a Q2 print due imminently on the company's own reporting pattern.