STX · investment memo
Mid-cycle normalised on the RESET level (post-2025 supply regime). Company's own demonstrated margins: FY2026 GAAP full-year actual 33.6% as the lower anchor, FQ4'26 non-GAAP exit rate 44.6% as the upper. Bridge: 44.0% gross - 4.5% R&D - 4.0% S&M/G&A - 0.5% other = 35.0%.
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
A daily close below $573.15 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Fundamental and falsifiable, never price-based. If one is satisfied the thesis is marked dead and the position is retained only by explicit decision.
Named cause: a hyperscaler-funded second source, or CY2028 LTA renewal at flat-to-down $/TB. Mechanics: nearline capacity is allocated through CY2027 and BTO pricing is fixed through FY2027. The exposure is the CY2028 renewal. If hyperscalers respond to 50% supplier gross margins by pre-funding capacity (the pattern already visible in NAND wafer prepayments) or by holding $/TB flat at renewal, Seagate's revenue growth reverts to exabyte growth alone (mid-20s%) with gross margin compressing toward the mid-30s as areal-density gains are again passed through. Quantified: FY2028 revenue $19.0bn (m