Seagate Technology [STX]
Dated events only. Anything undated is marked DATE NOT CONFIRMED and must not be treated as scheduled. No date in this file is inferred from a pattern.
| Date | Event | Source | Why it moves the thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 (today) | FQ4 FY2026 + FY2026 results released; webcast 2:00 PM PT / 5:00 PM ET | 8-K 0001137789-26-000153, EX-99.1 | Already in this memo: revenue $3,629m, GAAP GM 52.3%, FY26 EPS $13.90, FQ1'27 guide $4.1bn / $7.30 |
| 2026-07-29 | Management commentary on the FQ4 call — NOT YET AVAILABLE at time of writing. The transcript for FQ4 FY2026 (quarter=2026Q4) returned an empty array. |
AV EARNINGS_CALL_TRANSCRIPT |
The three things to extract: (a) whether nearline allocation now extends past CY2027; (b) whether the remaining two CSP Mozaic 4 qualifications completed as guided; (c) FY2027 revenue-per-terabyte direction |
| 2026-09-24 | Dividend record date | 8-K EX-99.1 | — |
| 2026-10-02 | FQ1 FY2027 quarter end | 8-K EX-99.1 (guidance refers to "the fiscal quarter ending October 2, 2026") | Guidance period: $4.1bn ±$100m revenue, $7.30 ±$0.20 non-GAAP EPS |
| 2026-10-07 | Dividend payment, $0.74/share | 8-K EX-99.1 | Raised from $0.72 |
| DATE NOT CONFIRMED — expected within ~2 weeks | FY2026 Form 10-K filing | FY2025 10-K was filed 2025-08-01 (per submissions index). Not announced. | Full-year segment detail, customer-concentration note, contract/backlog language, and the audited exabyte disclosures |
| DATE NOT CONFIRMED — late Oct 2026 | FQ1 FY2027 results | FQ1 FY2026 results were released 2025-10-28 (8-K 0001137789-25-000287). Not announced. | First test of the $4.1bn / $7.30 guide, and the first quarter in which CY2027 allocation must be re-affirmed |
| Timing | Milestone | Source |
|---|---|---|
| June-2026 quarter ("the current quarter" as of the FQ3 call) | Complete Mozaic qualification with the remaining two of the leading global cloud customers (75% covered at FQ3) | FQ3'26 prepared remarks, CFO |
| 2H CY2026 | 50% exabyte crossover on nearline HAMR drives | FQ1'26 prepared remarks |
| Exiting CY2026 | Majority of HAMR exabytes on 40TB drives (vs 30TB previously) | FQ3'26 Q&A, clarified by CFO |
| End of FY2027 | 70% of nearline exabytes built on HAMR | FQ3'26 Q&A, clarified by CFO |
| End of FY2027 | Build-to-order contracts (configuration + pricing) run through this date | FQ3'26 prepared remarks, CEO |
| Through CY2027 | Nearline capacity "almost fully allocated" | FQ3'26 prepared remarks, CEO |
| CY2028 and beyond | "Actively engaged in strategic planning discussions" — not contracted | FQ3'26 prepared remarks, CEO |
The CY2028 renewal. Allocation is covered through CY2027 and BTO pricing through FY2027. Every
element of the structural thesis is contracted only to that boundary. The renewal negotiation will be
visible in the FQ2–FQ3 FY2027 calls (roughly Jan–Apr 2027) — that is when the falsifier in
STX_Research.md §8 becomes testable, and it sits inside the 12-month thesis horizon.
WDC FQ4 FY2026 results — DATE NOT CONFIRMED, expected within days to weeks (WDC's FY2025 10-K was filed 2025-08-14 and its FQ1 FY2026 results were released 2025-10-30; the FQ4 FY2026 release has not been announced as of 2026-07-29). WDC's FQ4 guide is revenue $3.65bn and non-GAAP GM 51–52%. A miss on WDC's gross margin, or any WDC commentary on adding capacity, is a read-across risk to STX regardless of STX's own print.