Seagate Technology [STX]
Sources, transformations, and every place a vendor figure was rejected in favour of a primary filing.
| Item | Source used | Why not the alternative |
|---|---|---|
| FY2026 revenue, margins, EPS, balance sheet, cash flow | 8-K 0001137789-26-000153, EX-99.1 (filed 2026-07-29) | Most recent primary source; postdates every API's latest period |
| Quarterly revenue / operating income / R&D, FQ1'24–FQ3'26 | EDGAR companyfacts XBRL (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, OperatingIncomeLoss, ResearchAndDevelopmentExpense) |
AV agrees to within 1.9%; EDGAR is primary |
| Quarterly gross profit / gross margin | AV INCOME_STATEMENT (grossProfit) cross-checked against the 8-K GAAP reconciliation |
STX does not tag GrossProfit in XBRL. AV's FQ4 figure ties exactly to the 8-K ($1,898m) |
| Shares outstanding | 8-K: 227m (2026-07-03); 10-Q XBRL 224.4m + dei cover 224.2m (2026-04-27) | AV BALANCE_SHEET.commonStockSharesOutstanding = 229.0m is the diluted WASO, not outstanding — rejected |
| Diluted shares for valuation | 232m (FQ4'26 GAAP diluted, from the 8-K) | Includes exchangeable-note dilution that management explicitly says is in FQ1'27 guidance |
| Debt and cash | 8-K balance sheet: $185m current + $3,380m long-term = $3,565m; cash $1,704m | AV longTermDebt and shortTermDebt were checked and are consistent one quarter earlier, but the newest period is only in the 8-K. The coordinator's longTermDebt-returns-zero defect was specifically checked: STX's XBRL LongTermDebtNoncurrent = $3,465m at 2026-04-03, non-zero, so that defect did not fire here. |
| Exabytes shipped | Earnings-call transcripts, CFO prepared remarks | Not in XBRL and not in the press release; only in the call and the (non-EDGAR) supplemental |
| Opex lines for the bridge | 8-K income statement: product development $188m, marketing & administrative $147m (FQ4) | Per the coordinator's warning, sellingGeneralAndAdministrative from AV was not used for the bridge |
| Prices, realised vol | Alpaca snapshots (last trade) and bars with adjustment=all |
— |
| Splits | AV SPLITS: empty — no splits. |
Verified explicitly per the KLA precedent |
| Field | Vendor value | Correct value | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
AV BALANCE_SHEET.commonStockSharesOutstanding (2026-03-31) |
229.0m | 224.4m | +4.6m / +2.1% |
AV OVERVIEW.MarketCapitalization |
$190,974m (implies a $851.69 price) | $171,356m at 224.2m × $764.20 | +$19.6bn / +11.4%; built on a stale price |
AV OVERVIEW.EPS |
$9.64 | $13.90 FY26 GAAP diluted | −30.6% |
AV OVERVIEW.TrailingPE |
77.52 | 55.0 on FY26 GAAP EPS | +41% |
AV OVERVIEW.EBITDA |
$3,514m | $4,220m LTM non-GAAP EBITDA (8-K) | −$706m / −16.7% |
AV OVERVIEW.OperatingMarginTTM |
35.7% | 28.3% (TTM GAAP op income $3,119m / revenue $11,010m to 2026-03-31) | +7.4pp — consistent with the coordinator's finding that AV's ebit is not operating income (AMAT: 9.7pp) |
AV OVERVIEW.RevenueTTM |
$11,010m | correct as of 2026-03-31, but one quarter stale vs FY26 $12,195m | −9.7% |
AV INCOME_STATEMENT.operatingIncome (2025-10-03) |
$707m | $694m (EDGAR) | +$13m / +1.9% |
AV EARNINGS_ESTIMATES |
estimates: [] |
— | endpoint returns nothing on this name |
AV EARNINGS_CALL_TRANSCRIPT quarter=2026Q2 |
December-2025 call | fiscal, not calendar labelling | off by 2 quarters |
Not rejected: AV's ebitda field was never used (brief §"Two known AV defects"), and EBITDA was
taken from the 8-K's own reconciliation, which correctly adds positive D&A of $276m to EBIT.
Revenue build: exabytes × revenue-per-exabyte, by segment (data centre vs edge/IoT), reconciled to reported revenue. This is the only defensible build for this business because both terms are disclosed and both are moving.
| FY2026A | FY2027E | FY2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12,195m | ~$17.6bn | ~$21.1bn |
| growth | +34.1% | +44% | +20% |
| Non-GAAP gross margin | 46.1% | ~52% | ~53% |
| Non-GAAP opex | $1,170m (9.6%) | ~$1,240m (7.0%) | ~$1,315m (6.2%) |
| Non-GAAP operating margin | 36.5% | ~46% | ~47% |
| Non-GAAP diluted EPS | $15.58 | ~$31.60 | ~$35.80 |
FQ1 FY2027 is guided ($4.1bn, $7.30). FQ2–FQ4 FY2027 are a sequential progression consistent with (a) nearline capacity almost fully allocated through CY2027, (b) mid-20s% data-centre exabyte growth, and (c) mid-single-digit to high-single-digit revenue-per-TB increases. FY2028 applies management's stated "minimum 20%" revenue growth target.
Not modelled, deliberately: capacity expansion capex beyond the 4–6% of revenue target (management has ruled out unit-capacity investment); any acquisition; any change to the exchangeable-note capital structure beyond scheduled maturity.
| Parameter | Value | Derivation |
|---|---|---|
m_gross,T |
44.0% | 1.6pp below FY2026 actual 45.6%; 8.3pp below FQ4 exit 52.3% |
| R&D | 4.5% of revenue | FY26 product development $755m = 6.2%; near-fixed, so falls with scale; held at 4.5% not 3.5% for post-HAMR roadmap |
| S&M + G&A | 4.0% | FY26 marketing & admin $577m = 4.7% |
| Other | 0.5% | restructuring, amortisation |
m_EBIT,T |
35.0% | bridge residual; above FY26 GAAP actual 33.6% |
| t | 16% | FY26 GAAP effective 13.7%; guided ~16% |
| g | 4.0% | terminal |
| ROIC | 40% | FY26 actual 66% (NOPAT $3,533m / invested capital $5,326m), decayed |
| WACC | 10.0% | — |
| Exit EV/EBIT | 12.6x | from (1−t)(1−g/ROIC)/(WACC−g), not asserted |
| FCF margin (interim) | 26.0% | FY26 actual 25.5%; FQ4 30.8% |
reverse_dcf.py is terminal-only and ignores five years of interim FCF, which on a
26%-FCF-margin business overstates the required CAGR by ~5.1pp (39.9% vs 34.8%). Both figures are
reported; the FCF-inclusive one is used.entity_public_float (223.559m) ≤ SharesOutstanding (224.229m) ≤ diluted (232m); float × spot
$170.9bn ≤ market cap $171.4bn. Invariant holds.