Phase Space AI

Stryker

SYK · investment memo

Valuation margin
demonstrated − required CAGR
-4.3%
Required CAGR
15.1%
Demonstrated
10.8%
Terminal margin
20.0%
Exit multiple
22.7x
Company state
Terminal margin basis

HEADLINE FIGURE, AND THE MEMO DISCLOSES IT AS DEFECTIVE - the same defect as ISRG. The scan's published required_cagr_pct inverts exactly to a FLAT 20.0% terminal EBIT margin applied to EVERY name in the scan universe, the hardcoded constant coverage_scan.py's own comments record as a defect fixed after these scan files were written. SYK's OWN operating margin is 19.5%, so unlike ISRG the constant is slightly ABOVE trailing here; substituting 19.5% gives required CAGR 15.7% and margin -4.9pp - slightly WORSE, not better. Stated rather than silently applied, and the direction is why it does not change the verdict.

Risk & exit

Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.

Risk trigger
12% below the memo price
$304.98
Forward E[R]
vs a 0% floor
+12.5%

A daily close below $304.98 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.

Thesis-invalidation conditions

Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.

Impairment case

- FY2026 organic guidance cut below 8.0% at any print → Quality Criteria mechanism materially impaired. - Two consecutive quarters of organic growth below 8.0% ex-cyber → the 16-quarter streak is over; the entire Quality Criteria mechanism weakens. - A second material cybersecurity incident, or any auditor commentary on internal controls arising from the first → Quality Criteria mechanism materially impaired. The Q1-2026 10-Q already warns that manual workarounds "may increase the risk of errors, delays or data integrity issues (including with respect to… processes supporting financial and ope

Documents

SYK Catalyst Calendar SYK Model Notes SYK Research SYK Trade Construction SYK Valuation