Stryker [SYK]
Built: 2026-07-28 · Spot: $346.57 · investment-memo v1.6.0 — Catalyst Criteria is MEASURED: dated events that would confirm or refute the Valuation Criteria implied path (15.1% required vs 10.8% demonstrated). No position verdict is stated or implied by this calendar.
Every entry is dated, checkable, and carries an explicit upgrade/downgrade threshold. Hand off ongoing
maintenance to equity-research:catalyst-calendar and equity-research:thesis-tracker.
Status: 2 days away. This is why no position is taken today.
Consensus: revenue $6.56bn (+8.9%), adjusted EPS $3.46 (+10.5%). Option-implied move to the 21-Aug expiry: ±7.9%.
| Organic growth prints | Read | Action |
|---|---|---|
| > 12.5% | Full cyber recovery in one quarter | UPGRADE. Bull confirmed; lift the Route A trigger from $305 to $330; re-set Base toward $410 |
| 10.5 – 12.5% | Partial recovery | Base confirmed; reference level unchanged at $305 |
| 9.0 – 10.5% | Normal growth, no recovery — the Street was right | Cut Base toward $355; reference level to $295 |
| < 9.0% | Underlying deceleration on top of the cyber loss | DOWNGRADE to Avoid. Cut the trigger to $270 |
Also required at this print, regardless of the headline: 1. Is FY2026 organic guidance raised from 8.0–9.5%? Stryker raised at Q1 in FY2024 (+100bp) and FY2025 (+50bp) and merely maintained in FY2026. A raise here restores the sandbag pattern; a cut is a serious negative. 2. Does Ortho Tech get a disclosed revenue line? This is Route B trigger #1 — the single highest-value disclosure event available, because it would restore the Mako inference the 2026Q1 reorganisation destroyed and make a the dissolved variant-vs-consensus test (old Gate 2) variant possible for the first time. 3. Do not misread the Orthopaedics headline. The US spine divestiture anniversaries this quarter, so the segment's acquisitions/divestitures drag (−7.9%, −8.3%, −7.5%, −5.9% in the last four quarters) largely disappears. Reported Orthopaedics growth will jump roughly 6–8pp for purely mechanical reasons. Read organic only. 4. Any quantification of the cyber revenue impact. Never disclosed to date. My ~$440m derivation is the memo's largest single estimate; a company figure would confirm or kill it. 5. Gross margin. Q1 carried −200bp of idle-production cost. If Q2 gross margin does not recover toward 63.8–64.5%, remediation costs are persisting.
This is the true thesis-resolving event.
Consensus FY2027: revenue $29,589m (+8.5%), adjusted EPS $16.72 (+11.6%) (26 analysts).
| FY2027 organic guidance | Action |
|---|---|
| ≥ 9.0% | UPGRADE. The Base case's 8.5% is conservative; Bull weight to 35%; Route A trigger to $335 |
| 8.0 – 9.0% | Base confirmed. Hold. |
| 7.0 – 8.0% | Bear case gaining. Cut Base toward $340; trigger to $280 |
| < 7.0% | DOWNGRADE to Avoid. The 16-quarter growth streak is definitively over |
Also: the FY2027 adjusted EPS guide against $16.72. A guide below $16.30 implies the adjusted operating margin path has broken.
Cleared 2024-08-27 (K241517). First US cases October 2024; limited launch since.
| ID | Item | Current state | Query / source | Cadence | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | A new Mako-family FDA 510(k) clearance | Last: K260222, 2026-02-25 (Mako Total Knee) | api.fda.gov/device/510k.json?search=device_name:"Mako" |
monthly | The launch-cadence leading indicator. A gap of >12 months would break the tripled-cadence claim in Quality Criteria |
| M2 | Mako-MORE Registry begins recruiting | Registered 2026-06-15, NOT_YET_RECRUITING, n=950 | ClinicalTrials.gov v2, query.spons=Stryker |
monthly | Stryker building the Mako evidence base. Failure to open by Q2-2027 is a negative |
| M3 | Robotic-shoulder publication count | ONE paper, ever (2026) | PubMed E-utilities, "robotic shoulder arthroplasty"[All Fields] AND {year}[PDAT] |
quarterly | Route B trigger #4. 10+ in a calendar year would make the shoulder vector real |
| M4 | Robotic-TKA publication count | 154 (2025); 128 through July 2026 | Same, "robotic-assisted total knee arthroplasty" |
quarterly | The core Quality Criteria mechanism. A flattening curve is the earliest available warning |
| M5 | Stryker-sponsored trial starts | 3 in 2025 (vs 24 in 2019); 6 in 2026 so far | ClinicalTrials.gov v2 | quarterly | Clinical investment collapsed in 2025. Sustained recovery through 2026 is needed |
| M6 | Consensus FY2028 revenue | Not yet published in the cached Alpha Vantage pull | Alpha Vantage EARNINGS_ESTIMATES (1 call — mind the 25/day cap) |
quarterly | Route B trigger #3: a >3% upward revision with no guidance raise or M&A = the Street re-rating duration |
| M7 | Any acquisition above $2bn | Last: Inari, $4.96bn, Feb-2025 | EDGAR 8-K Item 2.01 / press | event-driven | Asset growth is already +11.3% and tangible book is −$2,552m. A >$6bn equity-funded deal is an invalidation trigger |
| M8 | A second cybersecurity 8-K (Item 1.05) | One, 2026-03-11 / amended 2026-04-09 | EDGAR full-text, forms 8-K | event-driven | Immediate Avoid |
| M9 | Insider open-market purchases (Form 4, code P) | ZERO in 107 filings since Jan-2025 | EDGAR Form 4 XML | monthly | Cohen/Malloy/Pomorski: clustered non-routine buys are the signal. Any P-code purchase by an officer is a genuine positive |
| M10 | Free cash flow reintroduced as a reported metric | Retired at 2023Q1; FCF conversion has recovered to 81.3% | Earnings release non-GAAP list | quarterly | Reinstating a metric retired at its low point would be a real disclosure-quality positive |
| Date | Event | Relevance |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Q2 2026 results | C1 |
| 2026-08-21 | August option expiry | Implied ±7.9% spans C1 |
| ~2026-08-07 | Q2 2026 10-Q | Cyber risk-factor language; any internal-controls update |
| ~2026-10-29 | Q3 2026 results | Third FY2026 guidance checkpoint; Mako Spine launch progress |
| 2026-12-31 | Mako Spine full US rollout deadline (guided) | C3 |
| ~2027-01-28 | Q4 2026 + FY2027 guidance | C2 — the thesis-resolving event |
| ~2027-02-11 | FY2026 10-K | First full year of Ortho Tech segment reporting; goodwill impairment testing on Inari |
| ~2027-03 | AAOS 2027 Annual Meeting | Where Mako 4, shoulder and spine data would be presented; Mako 4 was launched at AAOS 2025 |
| Ongoing | US tariff policy | ~$175m FY2025 net impact; tariffs has appeared in every release since 2025Q1 |
Mandatory re-underwrite: 2026-07-30, after the close (Route C in SYK_Trade_Construction.md). This memo is
deliberately dated 48 hours before the event that resolves its central uncertainty; it is not valid past that
print without a Task 8 refresh, including the PEAD check (surprise versus the $3.46 pre-print consensus, and the
30-day revision direction).
Standing review: quarterly, at each print, or immediately on any Tier 2 event-driven trigger. A daily price alert applies at $305.00 (Route A) and $270.00 (Avoid re-set).