Phase Space AI

T1 Energy

TE · investment memo

Valuation margin
demonstrated − required CAGR
Required CAGR
Demonstrated
Terminal margin
Exit multiple
Company state
D
Terminal margin basis

NULL BY DECISION, NOT BY OMISSION. The memo adopts NO base terminal margin and reports a joint grid instead (0.0% / 0.5% / 1.0% / 2.0% / 3.0% / 5.0% / 9.1%). A terminal margin for a loss-maker requires a named mechanism and the prose supplies none: T1 buys its cells, assembles PERC and TOPCon modules, and sells 99.86% of them to one related party. The only positive figure available is the screen's 9.1%, derived from a TECH/semiconductor peer median that SIC 3674 assigned in error, and the memo rejects it explicitly.

Risk & exit

Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.

Risk trigger
25% below the memo price
$2.79

A daily close below $2.79 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.

Thesis-invalidation conditions

Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.

Impairment case

Type: MEASURED. Logged; blocks nothing. Named cause: a single related-party offtake relationship is renegotiated, reduced or lost, and/or a PFE material-assistance determination disqualifies the 2026 §45X vintage — while an unfunded $510m plant and a $66.0m preferred redemption consume a balance sheet holding $79.1m of unrestricted cash.

Documents

TE Catalyst Calendar TE Financial Model Notes TE Research TE Trade Construction TE Valuation