Phase Space AI

Atlassian

TEAM · investment memo

Valuation margin
demonstrated − required CAGR
+12.1%
Required CAGR
11.5%
Demonstrated
23.6%
Terminal margin
Exit multiple
4.0x
Company state
C
Terminal margin basis

GENUINELY ABSENT, and deliberately so. The memo INVERTED this parameter: it ran the implied-path test on an EV/Sales basis and SOLVED for the required terminal EBIT margin rather than holding one fixed, explicitly rejecting the Tier-1 screen's flat 10.7% (which had been applied identically to four of five cluster names). No underwritten terminal margin exists to extract, and inventing one would fabricate the memo's load-bearing refusal. The solved surface is in required_terminal_margin_pct_by_exit.

Risk & exit

Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.

Risk trigger
21% below the memo price
$82.13
Forward E[R]
vs a 0% floor
+16.0%

A daily close below $82.13 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.

Thesis-invalidation conditions

Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.

Impairment case

Type: MEASURED. Logged and scored on every name; it does not reject the name. Named cause: the Data Center cliff arriving faster than Cloud replaces it, with the pull-forward reversing first. Going-concern: not argued. See §9 of the research document for the balance-sheet basis. Full reasoning, the mechanism, and why the probabilities are what they are: TEAM_Research.md §9.

Documents

TEAM Catalyst Calendar TEAM Financial Model Notes TEAM Research TEAM Trade Construction TEAM Valuation