Atlassian [TEAM]
As of 2026-07-29. Framework v1.5.1. Tier-2 memo, cluster member (data & dev infrastructure).
Cluster analysis: reports/clusters/Data_Dev_Infrastructure_Cluster_2026-07-29.md
This memo issues no position verdict. The book decides.
| Primary source | SEC EDGAR — XBRL companyfacts and the primary 10-Q document, read directly |
| CIK | 1650372 |
| Latest 10-Q | period ending 2026-03-31, filed 2026-05-01, accession 000165037226000027 |
| Filing age at analysis date | 89 days — recency asserted per valuation.md; no GOOGL-class staleness |
| Prices | Alpaca /v2/stocks/snapshots, 2026-07-29 session close |
| Multiple history | Alpaca monthly bars × quarterly weighted-average share count ÷ TTM revenue, with a 60-day filing lag applied so no figure is used before it was public |
| Reverse DCF | ~/.claude/skills/investment-memo/assets/reverse_dcf.py |
| Options chain | Alpaca /v2/options/contracts + /v1beta1/options/snapshots, Jan-2027 expiry, pulled 2026-07-29 |
| Consensus | NOT OBTAINED — Alpha Vantage 25/day quota shared and exhausted. Consensus Criteria INDETERMINATE; blocks nothing. |
TTM revenue is built by summing the last four quarterly XBRL periods, never taken from the last fiscal year.
The framework's MU (understated 136%) and SNDK (76%) failures both came from using last-FY revenue.
Where a fiscal Q4 is not separately tagged, it is derived as the annual figure minus the three tagged quarters. That derivation is applied to TEAM's Q4 and is arithmetically exact, not estimated.
All figures in $000s, from XBRL, verified against the 10-Q. Fiscal year ends 30 June.
| Quarter ended | Revenue | YoY | Gross margin | GAAP op margin | SBC / revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-31 | 1,356,716 | +14.1% | 83.8% | -0.92% | 25.6% |
| 2025-06-30 | 1,384,344 | n/a | 84.8% | -2.06% | 25.3% |
| 2025-09-30 | 1,432,553 | +20.6% | 82.0% | -6.72% | 24.5% |
| 2025-12-31 | 1,586,315 | +23.3% | 85.0% | -3.01% | 28.5% |
| 2026-03-31 | 1,786,971 | +31.7% | 85.3% | -3.15% | 22.9% |
TTM revenue: $6,190.2m. TTM GAAP operating margin: -3.70%. TTM SBC: $1,562.6m = 25.2% of revenue.
Note the operating-margin column against the screen's figure. The screen computed operating margin on the last fiscal year, not the trailing twelve months, on every name in this cluster. That is one quarter stale on four of them and nine months stale on TEAM.
| @2026-03-31 | |
|---|---|
| Shares outstanding (period end, verified) | 255.864m |
| Spot (2026-07-29) | $104.25 |
| Market capitalisation | $26,674m |
| Net cash (financial-debt basis) | $147.7m |
| Enterprise value | $26,526m |
| EV / TTM Sales | 4.29x |
Net cash convention, applied identically across all five cluster names: cash and equivalents, plus all marketable securities whether current or non-current, plus restricted cash, less all financial debt including convertibles. Operating and finance lease liabilities are EXCLUDED as operating rather than financing obligations. Strategic non-marketable equity investments are excluded — they are neither cash nor marketable. Figures including leases as debt are given in the research document so either convention can be reconstructed.
Cross-check performed and passed: net income ÷ shares ≈ filed EPS. See §1 of TEAM_Research.md. This is the
control against the 4.1x and 54% scale errors in the framework's record.
This model cannot use the reported revenue growth rate, and that is its defining feature.
Reported Q3 FY26 growth is +31.7%. The revenue-by-deployment table shows why it must be adjusted: Data Center — an end-of-life product at 31.4% of revenue — grew +44%, against +15.8% for the same line in H1 FY26. Atlassian announced the end-of-life in September 2025; stopped selling to new customers in March 2026; stops selling expansions to existing customers in March 2028; and recognises the licence component of Data Center term contracts UPFRONT.
Adjustment applied: hold Q3 Data Center at its H1 growth rate of 15.8%. That gives $450.7m rather than $560.7m — an excess of ~$110m, or 8.1pp of the reported 32% total growth. Adjusted growth: ~23.6%. Every valuation output in this memo uses 23.6%, not 31.7%. The reported figure is shown alongside so the adjustment is auditable.
A model that carries 31.7% forward is modelling revenue Atlassian has publicly committed to discontinuing. And the schedule is dated: Data Center growth goes structurally negative from March 2028 and the revenue goes to zero by March 2029.
The second adjustment: the share count. The screen used WeightedAverageNumberOfSharesOutstandingBasic =
260,965,000. Atlassian retired 11.8m Class A shares during the quarter at an average of $85.04 (14.5m over
nine months at $100.51), so the weighted average sits materially above the period-end count. Period-end:
161,730,398 Class A + 94,133,617 Class B = 255,864,015 at 2026-03-31, and 253,767,862 at the 2026-04-24
cover date. The screen's figure overstates market cap by 2.8%, ~$532m at $104.25.
The third: the operating margin the screen used was nine months stale. margin_period: 2025-06-30 against
revenue_as_of: 2026-03-31, reporting −2.5% and op_margin_delta_pp: +0.2. True TTM: −3.70%, and
deteriorating from −2.50% in FY2025. S&M grew +48.4% against revenue of +31.7%.
Unquantified and therefore carried as a disclosed gap, not modelled: BCNY ($488.3m, closed 2025-10-20) and DX ($720.4m, closed 2025-11-10) — $1,208.7m combined, both contributing a first full quarter in Q3 FY26, with no revenue contribution and no pro-forma comparative disclosed. BCNY also carries $105.2m of retention and replacement RSUs ($8.2m + $97.0m) that become future SBC on a $488m purchase.
Balance-sheet note: Atlassian liquidated its entire marketable-securities portfolio during the quarter ($407,932k → $0) to fund $991m of repurchases plus the acquisitions. It carries $989,081k of senior notes and is the only name in the cluster with essentially zero net cash. Stockholders' equity fell $1,590.8m → $879.0m; the accumulated deficit deepened $1,108.3m against a $98.4m net loss, confirming ~$1.01bn of buybacks charged directly to accumulated deficit.
| Item | Treatment | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| AI revenue | not modelled — zero credited | No AI revenue, AI ARR or AI contribution figure is disclosed by any of the five cluster names. Per the brief, unquantified AI upside is not credited. |
| Consensus estimates | absent | Alpha Vantage quota exhausted. Consensus Criteria INDETERMINATE. Blocks nothing. |
| Transcript mention counts | substituted | Filing mention-frequency used instead (research document §6), from the primary 10-Q/10-K documents. Labelled as a substitution, not presented as transcript data. |
| Terminal margin as an input | inverted | The screen's universe-wide 10.7% is not used. Instead the reverse DCF solves for the required terminal margin and it is compared to the industry's observed ceiling. See TEAM_Valuation.md §2. |
| Interim free cash flows | not built | Terminal value is effectively 100% of EV at a negative GAAP operating margin, far above the 60% threshold. An elaborate interim build would add false precision without changing the answer, which is precisely the reverse DCF's design rationale. |
| Historical EV/Sales | approximated as P/S | Historical net cash is not reconstructible at monthly frequency across all five names. P/S is used for the percentile work and labelled as such. Net cash is 0.6%–23.6% of market cap depending on the name, so the approximation is tightest for TEAM and SNOW and loosest for GTLB — flagged in GTLB's valuation document. |