TEM · investment memo
House base-case terminal EBIT margin, reached by FY2035 after fading from -15.5% (FY2026E) through GAAP breakeven at FY2029 to +4.5% (FY2030E). Constraint m_EBIT,T 16.0 <= m_gross,T SATISFIED on any of the memo's gross-margin figures (62.74% FY2025 actual, 63.8% Q1'26, modelled rising to 69.5% by FY2030). ABOVE the trailing operating margin of -19.9%, so the below-trailing error class does not apply. NOTE THE TENSION THE MEMO RECORDS: its own reverse DCF finds the MARKET PRICE requires a 20-24% terminal EBIT margin, i.e. 4-8pp above the house terminal, and that gap - not the near-term numbers - is where the entire house-vs-market disagreement sits.
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
A daily close below $32.58 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.
Not stated. No permanent-loss case with a named cause is on file. A valuation bear case is not an impairment case.