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Catalyst Calendar

TransMedics Group [TMDX]

TransMedics Group [TMDX] — Catalyst Calendar

Catalyst Criteria — MEASURED. Time works for a long, so a dated event is not required to own a compounder. It is required to monitor one.

Compiled 2026-07-29. Every date below is either filed with the SEC, announced by the company, or explicitly marked as an estimate from the company's own historical reporting pattern. Nothing is invented. Where no date exists, that is stated rather than filled in.

Dated and confirmed

Date Event Why it matters Source
Tue 4 Aug 2026, after close Q2 2026 results; call 4:30pm ET The dominant near-term event. Tests (a) whether FY2026 guidance of $727–757m is held, raised or cut; (b) whether the Q1 operating-margin collapse to 7.6% was a one-quarter investment step or a level; (c) the product/service mix in the segment-expense table. Q2-2025 revenue was $157.370m, so the YoY comparator is set. Company announcement 2026-07-21 (StockTitan)
1 Jun 2028 $459,996,000 convertible senior notes mature (1.50%, conversion price $94.00, 10.6388 shares per $1,000) Self-liquidating above $94; a $460m cash call below it. Spot is $76.35. FY2025 10-K / Q1-26 10-Q, R42
By 31 Dec 2027 Somerville HQ purchase option: $374.590m The company judges exercise "reasonably certain" and has capitalised a $343.8m finance-lease liability and a $334.5m ROU asset on that judgement. Exercised after that date, the price rises on a formula tied to future payments. Q1-26 10-Q, Note 10; 8-K 2026-01-12
From 1 Jan 2028 (if the option is not exercised) Somerville base rent begins at $23.9m/yr, +2% annually for three years then +3%, to January 2044 The alternative to a $374.6m cash outflow, and the reason the downside case is not a going-concern case. 8-K 2026-01-12, Item 1.01
From Jul 2026 CIBC term loan begins monthly amortisation; matures Jul 2027; $60.0m principal Covenants: minimum liquidity the greater of the trailing-four-month adjusted EBITDA loss or $10.0m; and total net revenue ≥75% of the revenue plan presented to CIBC. The revenue covenant converts a growth miss into a credit event. Q1-26 10-Q, R45
On or before 1 Jan 2028 Headquarters transition from Andover to Somerville (498,286 sq ft) Execution and one-off relocation cost. $0.2m of "headquarters relocation costs" already ran through Q1-26 SG&A. 8-K 2026-01-12
Through 29 Dec 2026 HRSA/UNOS OPTN operating contract runs in four optional three-month extensions under the agreement effective 30 Dec 2025 Governance of the allocation system TransMedics' NOP operates inside. The 10-K's own assessment of the impact is "uncertain at this time." FY2025 10-K, Item 1

Company-flagged, timing stated by management but not SEC-filed

Timing Event Status
Early Q3 2026 CHOPS (Controlled Hypothermic Organ Preservation System) IDE implementation Management-stated target, reported by a secondary source (Seeking Alpha). CHOPS was unveiled at ISHLT in Q1 2026 and exists to enable enrolment of the control arms of ENHANCE Heart Part B and DENOVO Lung. Not a revenue event.
2026 European NOP launch; PAD Aviation (Germany) investment closes Definitive agreement announced 2026-05-05. "Intent to create the first dedicated European transplant logistic network." No completion date is disclosed. Note this is a logistics build and by construction dilutes blended gross margin.
Q4 2025 → ongoing ENHANCE Heart trial enrolment FDA IDE granted August 2025; trial initiated Q4 2025. Multi-part, prospective, seeking superiority claims versus static cold storage. No enrolment-completion or readout date is disclosed.
2026 → ongoing DENOVO Lung trial FDA IDE granted January 2026. 10-K: "Enrollment is expected to commence following site activation and regulatory readiness." Enrolment had not commenced as of the FY2025 10-K. No dates disclosed.
No date OCS Kidney First appears in company disclosure at the FY2025 release (2026-02-24). No IDE, no trial, no timeline disclosed.
No date Gen-3 OCS platform "We intend to develop newer versions of the technology." Aspirational; no dates.

Estimated from the company's own reporting pattern — estimates, labelled as such

TransMedics has reported on a stable cadence. These are extrapolations of that cadence, not announced dates, and must be replaced with the company's confirmation before being relied on.

Estimated Event Basis
late Oct 2026 (est.) Q3 2026 results Q3 reported 2024-10-28, 2025-10-29
late Feb 2027 (est.) FY2026 results and initial FY2027 guidance FY reported 2025-02-27, 2026-02-24. This is the print that sets the FY2027 growth rate the 12-month target rests on — and the FY2027 revenue figure used in that target is a house estimate, not consensus.
May 2027 (est.) Q1 2027 results Q1 reported 2025-05-08, 2026-05-05
~Feb 2027 (est.) FY2026 10-K — ICFR material-weakness remediation status The weakness was first identified in the FY2024 audit and remained open at 31 Dec 2025. A third consecutive open year would be a materially different fact. Management states a remediation plan is "in the process of" implementation, with no completion date given.

What the calendar does not contain, and why

Stated explicitly, because a fabricated catalyst date is worse than an absent calendar:

  1. No ENHANCE or DENOVO readout dates. Neither is disclosed. Enrolment for DENOVO had not begun as of the last 10-K.
  2. No OCS Kidney milestones. Nothing is disclosed beyond the programme's existence.
  3. No FDA approval or PMA-supplement dates. None are pending on the disclosed record.
  4. No reimbursement decisions. TransMedics bills transplant centres directly; there is no pending CMS coverage decision on the disclosed record.
  5. No European NOP launch date, no PAD Aviation closing date.
  6. No investor day or medical-conference presentation dates beyond the ISHLT appearance already made.
  7. No consensus-estimate revision dates — the Alpha Vantage quota is exhausted and the Consensus Criteria is INDETERMINATE.

Ranked by what would actually move the analysis

  1. Q2 2026 results, 4 August 2026. Six days out. It resolves the two questions the whole memo turns on — whether the deceleration continues and whether the operating margin recovers — and it makes every number in this memo provisional until it lands.
  2. The FY2026 print and FY2027 guide, ~late February 2027. The 12-month target rests on a house FY2027 estimate; this replaces it with a company number.
  3. The Somerville decision, by 31 December 2027. Exercising costs $374.6m of cash; abandoning writes off a $334.5m ROU asset and reverses $343.8m of the liability, cutting the required CAGR from 11.7% to 9.0%.
  4. Any equity or convertible issuance. It is the mechanism by which the downside case becomes permanent loss rather than drawdown.
  5. ICFR remediation, ~February 2027. Third-year persistence would put the product-margin series — the memo's central exhibit — under a materially heavier discount.