Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
Risk trigger 17% below the memo price
$63.16
Forward E[R] vs a 0% floor
-11.7%
A daily close below $63.16 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Thesis-invalidation conditions
Fundamental and falsifiable, never price-based. If one is satisfied the thesis is marked dead and the position is retained only by explicit decision.
Stoker's segment operating income. Q1'25 $24.1m → Q1'26 $19.8m on +48.1% revenue. If Q2'26 again shows Stoker's operating income falling on rising revenue, the growth engine's incremental economics are structural, not a launch phase, and the thesis is dead.
Stoker's "other segment items" as % of segment sales. 13.6% (FY23) → 15.9% → 20.8% → 31.5% (Q1'26). Above 30% for two consecutive quarters invalidates the 23.0% terminal S&M assumption and with it the 18.0% terminal margin.
Zig-Zag revenue. −7.2% FY2025, −22.4% in Q1'26. Below −15% for a full year means the legacy asset is in terminal decline rather than being harvested. FY2025
Inventory. +24.1% YoY against revenue +16.8%. If inventory growth stays above revenue growth for two more quarters without the modern-oral manufacturing lines coming online, the pre-launch reading is dead and it is a channel problem.
Impairment case
Named cause: an FDA Marketing Denial Order on either pending PMTA product line. This is a genuinely existential, genuinely undated risk. TPB has two product lines under PMTA review, does not name them, and there is no FDA decision timeline. An MDO on the modern-oral line removes $107.7m of FY2025 growth and 105.2% of consolidated growth at a stroke, leaving a Zig-Zag business whose operating income is already down 13.7% over two years plus a legacy MST business. Quantified: ex-modern-oral, FY2025 revenue is roughly $355m (Zig-Zag $178.5m + Stoker's ex-modern oral ~$177m) at a blended operating