Turning Point Brands [TPB]
Every date is sourced. Where a date is not disclosed it says NOT DISCLOSED. Nothing here is inferred.
| date | event | source | why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| NOT DISCLOSED | FDA determination on either pending PMTA product line | FY2025 10-K Item 1: submissions filed September 2020 and May 2022; the FDA publishes no decision timeline and the 10-K states only that products under review "were allowed to remain on the market" | The dominant risk on this name. It is existential, it can arrive any day, and its timing is genuinely unknowable from disclosure. I am recording the absence rather than inventing a date. |
| NOT DISCLOSED | Which two product lines are under PMTA | 10-K Adjusted EBITDA footnote (g) states there are exactly two and that no further applications will be filed; it never names them | Cannot size the exposure precisely without this |
| 2022-05-14 (PASSED) | NTN PMTA statutory filing deadline — TPB filed on time | 10-K Item 1A | Establishes that TPB's NTN products sit in the "timely-filed, under review, no negative action" category rather than the enforcement-priority category |
| 2022-07-13 (PASSED) | NTN enforcement date for products without a timely filing | 10-K Item 1A | Competitive: unfiled competitors became enforceable, but the 10-K notes FDA resource limits mean "there may be a lack of enforcement" |
| 2011-03-22 (PASSED) | Provisional substantial-equivalence submissions | 10-K Item 1A | FDA removed these from review "but has the discretion to reinitiate" — a dormant, undated risk |
| during 2026, month NOT DISCLOSED | ALP introduces 12 mg pouch strength | 10-K Item 1: "In 2026, ALP intends to broaden its portfolio, including with the introduction of 12 mg strength" | Modern oral is 105.2% of consolidated growth; a strength extension is the named product event inside the horizon |
| February 2026 (STARTED) | Quarterly payments begin on the SBB distribution-business option, over 18 months | 10-K Note: option price ~$20.0m, ~$8.0m paid at execution, remainder quarterly from February 2026 | Cash commitment against an 0.83% FCF margin |
| March 2027 | SBB Canadian distribution-business purchase option becomes exercisable | 10-K Note: "The option becomes exercisable in March 2027" | A dated, disclosed, ~$20.0m capital decision |
| 2025-07 / 2025-08 (PASSED) | $100.0m ATM equity issued at an average $98.59/share, net $97.5m; $200.0m of ATM capacity remains as of 2026-03-31 | 10-K Note 23 area and Q1'26 10-Q | The equity was sold 30% above the current $75.71 spot. $200m of remaining ATM capacity on a $1.47bn market cap is 13.6% of potential dilution, undated. |
| ongoing, no date | US tariffs on imported product | 10-K Note 23 (Subsequent Events): "As a result of the U.S. trade policies beginning in 2025, we incurred tariff charges on certain products we import from overseas manufacturers" | Named as the cause of Zig-Zag cigar-wrap gross-margin decline |
| ~2026-08 (ESTIMATED, NOT CONFIRMED) | Q2 2026 results | TPB reported Q2 on 2025-08-06 and 2025-08-11 in the prior year; no 8-K announcing the 2026 date had been filed as of 2026-07-30 | The test of whether Stoker's negative incremental operating margin in Q1'26 was a launch phase or structural |