Phase Space AI

Financial Model Notes

Turning Point Brands [TPB]

Turning Point Brands [TPB] — Financial Model Notes

Statement basis

TTM window

TTM = 2025-06-30, 2025-09-30, 2025-12-31, 2026-03-31 = $480.9m, verified consecutive. Calendar fiscal year, AV returns Q4 discretely, so the "EDGAR does not tag Q4" synthesis was not required.

The base-year problem in the demonstrated CAGR

The screen's cagr_base_revenue is $321,229,000 = FY2022, which is the trough created by the Creative Distribution Solutions wind-down (FY2021 revenue was $445.0m). The resulting 13.0% "demonstrated CAGR" is arithmetically correct and economically a recovery rate off a divested base. I have used it as the demonstrated figure because it is the framework's convention and changing it mid-comparison would break comparability with the corpus — but the memo states the caveat rather than inheriting the number silently. Measured FY2023→FY2025 (both post-divestiture), the CAGR is 19.4%, which is a more favourable number and I am not substituting it either.

Reconciliations

check result
gross profit + cost of sales = net sales ✔ every period, consolidated and by segment
segment operating income − corporate unallocated = consolidated operating income ✔ FY23/24/25 and Q1'25/Q1'26
m_EBIT,T ≤ m_gross,T 18.0% ≤ 56.0% ✔
terminal margin vs trailing −2.6pp vs FY2025, +0.3pp vs TTM — causal bridge supplied (mix + S&M intensity)
TTM window consecutive
SPLITS queried [] — nil, stated
factoring / securitisation / SCF searched zero hits, 10-K and 10-Q
AV revenue vs 10-K segment note ties to the thousand ✔