ServiceTitan

TTAN · Investment summary · as of 3 August 2026

Priced slightly ahead of what the business has demonstrated

Portfolio decision

No position

Price · 3 August 2026

$83.37

12-month target

Not determined

Expected return

Not determined

Next decision point

8 September 2026Results expected (estimated)

Business type: Inflection · scaling but economically observable

The operating path required by today's price is not achievable on the evidence.

Investment view

At $83.37, TTAN requires a 31% five-year revenue growth rate to justify its enterprise value — more than the business has ever demonstrated, at 24%.

DECLARED, and reasoned rather than assumed from the sector label.

The conditions that would settle the disagreement are dated 5 years.

The value rests on an exit multiple of 12.7x, a terminal operating margin of 20% and a 8.9% cost of capital. Move any one of them materially and the conclusion moves with it, which is why the required-versus-demonstrated test above carries more weight here than the point value.

The strongest argument against this view: A US residential-and-commercial trades VOLUME contraction, transmitted into TTAN revenue through gross transaction volume and net dollar retention.

Underwriting bridge

Question	Evidence-based conclusion
What drives the business?	DECLARED, and reasoned rather than assumed from the sector label.
What do we forecast?	Revenue growth of 24% demonstrated; a terminal operating margin of 20%; an exit multiple of 12.7x.
What does Street forecast?	Not determined — no consensus estimates are joined to this record
Where do we differ?	On terminal margin, the difference between what the price requires and what the business has demonstrated is -6.9 percentage points.
What is it worth?	Not determined — Resolvable into a real anchor around Dec-2026 when the post-listing history reaches two years.
Why now?	Date not announced — no dated event that would resolve the disagreement is on file

What must go right

By Date not announced — no test date is stated for this conditionPLATFORM GROSS MARGIN at or above 78.0% for two consecutive quarters (Q2 FY2027 onward, reported in the 10-Q MD&A). It was 78.70% in Q1 FY2027, up from ~77% FY2026 and ~73% FY2025.Where it stands: Not determined — no current reading of this metric is on file
By Date not announced — no test date is stated for this conditionSBC at or below 18.0% OF REVENUE for fiscal 2028 (year ending 31 January 2028, per the 10-K income statement and cash flow supplement). TTM SBC is 20.5% of revenue and the terminal margin build requires ~10%.Where it stands: Not determined — no current reading of this metric is on file
By Date not announced — no test date is stated for this conditionTTM GAAP OPERATING MARGIN improves by at least 3.0pp year-on-year in any two consecutive quarterly reports through FY2028. The declared thesis axis is margin; +13.30pp in the last window is the entire strength of this name's case.Where it stands: Not determined — no current reading of this metric is on file

Catalysts and falsifiers

Date or window	Event	Thesis confirmed if	Thesis weakened or refuted if
8 September 2026	Next results (date estimated, not issuer-confirmed)	Revenue and margin in line with, or above, the house path	A miss that moves the full-year path below the guided floor

Dates marked as estimated are drawn from the company’s own reporting cadence, not from an announcement.

Risk and sell discipline

Impairment case

A US residential-and-commercial trades VOLUME contraction, transmitted into TTAN revenue through gross transaction volume and net dollar retention. This is a business mechanism, not a multiple forecast and not a macro gesture. TTAN's pricing is explicitly indexed to customer scale — the 10-Q states pricing is 'linked to the size of the customer's business, generally based on the number of field technicians' — and the usage line is payment processing on customers' invoiced volume. GTV ran $21.7bn against $17.7bn a year earlier and net dollar retention is 'over 110%'. Both are customer-activity statistics.

Fundamental invalidation

Falsifiable and fundamental — not one of them is a price condition.

PLATFORM GROSS MARGIN below 78.0% for two consecutive quarters (Q2 FY2027 onward, reported in the 10-Q MD&A). It was 78.70% in Q1 FY2027, up from ~77% FY2026 and ~73% FY2025.
SBC above 18.0% OF REVENUE for fiscal 2028 (year ending 31 January 2028, per the 10-K income statement and cash flow supplement). TTM SBC is 20.5% of revenue and the terminal margin build requires ~10%.
TTM GAAP OPERATING MARGIN improves by less than 3.0pp year-on-year in any two consecutive quarterly reports through FY2028. The declared thesis axis is margin; +13.30pp in the last window is the entire strength of this name's case.
NET DOLLAR RETENTION reported at or below 105% in any quarter (disclosed in the 10-Q MD&A; 'over 110%' in Q1 FY2027). NDR is the transmission channel of the impairment case AND the engine of the growth case.

Price-based risk trigger

A daily close below $67.54 triggers an immediate review of the thesis and pauses additional buying. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.

Upside sell discipline

No position is held, so there is nothing to trim. The rung is stated as its inverse — the ENTRY discipline, which is the same arithmetic run the other way, so that a later price move cannot be actioned without a stated level.

Investment criteria

Criteria	Status	Investment meaning
Quality	Met	Is the business worth owning under its declared economic type?
Valuation	Not met	Is the operating path required by today's price achievable?
Liquidity	Met	Can the intended position be built and exited in the right vehicle?
Downside	Met	A US residential-and-commercial trades VOLUME contraction, transmitted into TTAN revenue through gross transaction volume and net dollar retention.
Momentum	Not determined	Does price action support or complicate entry timing? Not established on the evidence on file.
Catalyst	Not determined	Is there a dated event that resolves the disagreement? Not established on the evidence on file.
Consensus	Not determined	Is the house-versus-Street disagreement identified and quantified? Not established on the evidence on file.

Quality, valuation and liquidity can prevent a position on their own. The remaining four inform timing, sizing and monitoring, and never reject an investment by themselves.

Bottom line

The gap between what today's price requires and what the business has demonstrated is -6.9 percentage points, and that gap — not the multiple — is the case that the security is mispriced. The most important unresolved uncertainty is the permanent-loss mechanism: a US residential-and-commercial trades VOLUME contraction, transmitted into TTAN revenue through gross transaction volume and net dollar retention. The next evidence that should change the portfolio decision is the next scheduled results, or a daily close below $67.54, which forces an immediate review.