Phase Space AI

10x Genomics

TXG · investment memo

Valuation margin
demonstrated − required CAGR
-17.4%
Required CAGR
25.0%
Demonstrated
7.6%
Terminal margin
20.0%
Exit multiple
22.7x
Company state
C
Terminal margin basis

A FLAT CROSS-SECTIONAL ASSUMPTION back-solved from the scan's published required CAGR, NOT a per-name derivation - the memo says so explicitly and publishes the break-even instead so the reader can judge it. Constraint m_EBIT,T 20.0 <= m_gross,T 69.1 satisfied. On this name the assumption cuts in the COMPANY'S FAVOUR: TXG's actual operating margin is -9.5% (and that figure is itself flattered by litigation income), so using a lower, more defensible terminal margin would make the required CAGR HIGHER and the FAIL wider. Break-even terminal margin at the demonstrated 7.6% CAGR and a 22.7x exit is 42.3% - no company in the sector earns that.

Risk & exit

Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.

Risk trigger
18% below the memo price
$38.76
Forward E[R]
vs a 0% floor
-10.7%

A daily close below $38.76 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.

Thesis-invalidation conditions

Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.

Impairment case

Not stated. No permanent-loss case with a named cause is on file. A valuation bear case is not an impairment case.

Documents

TXG Company Research TXG Valuation and Trade