Phase Space AI

UFP Technologies

UFPT · investment memo

Valuation margin
demonstrated − required CAGR
-18.8%
Required CAGR
20.3%
Demonstrated
1.5%
Terminal margin
15.5%
Exit multiple
11.0x
Company state
A
Terminal margin basis

OWN_DEMONSTRATED_PLUS_OPEX_BRIDGE

Risk & exit

Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.

Risk trigger
13% below the memo price
$222.34
Forward E[R]
vs a 0% floor
+2.2%

A daily close below $222.34 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.

Thesis-invalidation conditions

Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.

Impairment case

Cause: Intuitive Surgical brings production in-house, and it is UFPT's own 10-K that names it — "the risk that our two largest customers… will not purchase the expected volume of goods… because… Intuitive Surgical SARL, our largest customer, decides to manufacture the products itself." Intuitive was 24.3% of FY2025 revenue and its dollars were flat (−0.5%) year on year. A phased insourcing over three years removes ~$146m of revenue at above-average incremental margin. On the remaining base, revenue falls to ~$460m and operating income to ~$55m; at a 10x exit on a shrinking business the equity

Documents

UFPT Catalyst Calendar UFPT Financial Model Notes UFPT Research UFPT Trade Construction UFPT Valuation