USPH · investment memo
OWN_DEMONSTRATED_PLUS_OPEX_BRIDGE
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
A daily close below $70.11 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.
Cause: the 2027 or 2028 MPFS returns to cuts, and USPH cannot offset it a sixth time. The mechanism is arithmetic and it is already visible in the disclosed metrics. USPH's margin expansion in FY2025 came entirely from holding adjusted salaries per visit to +0.5% against a +1.0% rate increase — a 0.5pp spread. Medicare is 32.8% of PT net patient revenue and rising. Physical therapist wage inflation has run well above 0.5% in every general labour series; USPH held it there by managing mix and productivity, and average daily visits per clinic decelerated from +5.9% to +1.9% in Q1 2026, which is