U.S. Physical Therapy [USPH]
Type: MEASURED. Every date is filed, disclosed, or derived from USPH's own cadence and labelled as such. Nothing is invented.
| date | basis | event | what it tests |
|---|---|---|---|
| In force from 2026-01-01 | FY2025 10-K, verbatim: "For services provided in 2026, we expect our reimbursement rates under the MPFS to increase by approximately 1.75% as compared to the applicable reimbursement rates during 2025." | 2026 Medicare Physician Fee Schedule: +1.75% | The first positive Medicare year in six (2021 −3.5%, 2022 −0.75%, 2023 −2.0%, 2024 −1.8%, 2025 a decrease). Already partly visible: net rate per visit +0.8% in Q1 2026. Worth ~+0.57% to consolidated revenue on a 32.8% Medicare share of PT net patient revenue — real and small |
| ~2026-08-06 (derived) | Q1 2026 results 8-K filed 2026-05-06; prior-year cadence | Q2 2026 results | Mature-clinic growth — the only number that matters. +2.5% in Q1 2026 |
| Mid-2026, date not disclosed by USPH | CMS publishes the proposed Physician Fee Schedule rule for the following calendar year in summer, finalising in autumn. USPH does not state a date and neither will I | CY2027 proposed MPFS | Whether the 2026 increase was a one-off or the start of a run. This is the single most important undated event in the file — it drives the downside case |
| ~2026-11-05 (derived) | prior-year cadence | Q3 2026 results | |
| ~2027-02-26 (derived) | FY2025 results 8-K and 10-K both filed 2026-02-27 | FY2026 results + 10-K | Full-year net rate per visit, adjusted salaries per visit, clinic additions/closures, and the "mature clinics" definition roll to "prior to 2026-01-01" |
| UNDATED — disclosed, no date | FY2025 10-K risk factor: "impact on the business and cash reserves resulting from retirement or resignation of key partners and resulting purchase of their non-controlling interest (minority interests)" | NCI redemption events | Redeemable NCI grew 20.5% in five quarters ($260.0m → $313.4m). Each purchase converts equity value into cash outflow at a stated fair-value redemption price |