WDAY · investment memo
Demonstrated pace ~+2.5pp/yr over four years (-2.3% FY22 to +10.4% TTM). 20% assumes +9.6pp over five years = +1.9pp/yr, SLOWER than demonstrated. Leaves a 10.5pp gap to the guided 30.5% non-GAAP that SBC accounts for. THE MEMO CALLS THIS 'THE LEAST WELL-ANCHORED TERMINAL MARGIN' in its cluster.
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
A daily close below $137.71 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.
Type: MEASURED. Logged, scored, and it does not reject the name. Scenario — headcount-linked pricing meets an enterprise hiring slowdown, against a net-expansion rate that is no longer disclosed. Probability 25%. Named cause and mechanism. Workday's subscription revenue scales with customer employee counts — the company frames its own scale as "more than 80 million users under contract." That makes it directly levered to enterprise headcount in a way a seat-priced application is not: a customer that stops hiring does not churn, it simply stops expanding. Workday's own disclosure of gross reten