Workday [WDAY]
As of 2026-07-29. Catalyst Criteria is MEASURED. Time works for a long, so a dated event is not required to own a compounder.
No date below is invented. Estimates are derived from Workday's own filing cadence and marked as estimates with the derivation shown.
Workday has reported Q1 in the third week of May and filed the 10-Q the following day, for each of the last three years (Q1 FY27: 8-K 2026-05-21, 10-Q 2026-05-22). Q2 lands in late August, Q3 in late November, Q4/FY in late February with the 10-K in early March.
| Estimated date | Event | What it tests | Derivation |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~late Aug 2026 | Q2 FY2027 results (quarter ends 2026-07-31) | The most important near-term test. FY27 subscription guidance of $9.925–9.950bn was reiterated, not raised, after Q1 delivered +14.3% subscription growth — implying the remaining quarters run below Q1. This print reveals whether that was conservatism or a warning. Also: the second clean quarter for the margin trend, with no prior-year restructuring to flatter the comparison (the Q1 headline of 1.8% → 13.3% was two-thirds a base effect). And the 12-month backlog growth rate, currently +15.5% against revenue at +13.5%. | Q2 FY26 10-Q filed 2025-08-28-ish; Q2 FY25 late Aug. |
| ~late Nov 2026 | Q3 FY2027 results (quarter ends 2026-10-31) | GAAP operating margin passing 15% is the bull-side test — it is 13.3% now with +4.1pp of clean YoY expansion. This is the direct quarterly read on the terminal-margin assumption that decides the entire implied-path verdict (Valuation §3, where the answer spans FAIL at 15% to PASS at 25%). | Q3 FY26 10-Q filed 2025-11-26. |
| ~late Feb 2027 | Q4 FY2027 results and first FY2028 guidance | The annual gross revenue retention disclosure appears here. It has gone ~98% (FY25) → ~97% (FY26); a third consecutive decline on a $9.9bn subscription base is ~$99m of incremental annual churn per point. This is the only retention metric Workday still publishes — the net rate was deleted from the FY2025 10-K (Research §4). Also the first FY28 subscription guide. | Q4 FY26 8-K 2026-02-24; FY26 10-K filed 2026-03-06. |
| ~late May 2027 | Q1 FY2028 results | Anniversary of the Q1 FY27 print that moved the stock +12.4% in a session. | Q1 FY27 8-K 2026-05-21. |
| Event | What it tests | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Workday disclosing an AI revenue or ARR figure of any kind | Currently zero dollars are attributed to AI anywhere in Workday's filings or releases, while "AI" mentions rose 30 → 62 → 125 across three 10-Ks. Any dollar figure would convert the narrative into a measurement and is an explicit bull-side falsifiable test. CRM discloses Agentforce ARR of $1.2bn; ADBE discloses >$500m. Workday discloses nothing. | No commitment. Do not model. |
| Sana adoption disclosure | Sana ("superintelligence for work") is generally available and appears 30 times in the FY26 10-K and 0 times in the Q1 FY27 10-Q. Note the precedent: "Illuminate" appeared 0 → 12 → 0 across three 10-Ks — an AI brand created and retired inside two years. Treat Sana's durability with that prior. | Disclosed qualitatively in releases |
| Agent customer count | ">4,000 customers using at least one organically developed agent," "more than doubled quarter-over-quarter." A growth rate off an undisclosed base. | Disclosed in releases, no date |
| Restructuring | "Restructuring" mentions 0 → 12 → 24 across three 10-Ks. Q1 FY26 carried $166m; Q1 FY27 carried zero. Further charges are the base case, not a surprise, and are explicitly NOT an invalidation trigger (Trade Construction §4). | No announced programme |
| Further buyback authorisation | $2,895m spent in FY26 and $1,614m in Q1 FY27 alone (12.0m Class A shares at ~$134.50). Buyback coverage of SBC crossed 1.0x only in FY2026. No new authorisation is announced. | Not announced — do not model |
| Duration shortening | Total subscription backlog +10.9% against the 12-month portion at +15.5%, implying average duration fell from ~35 to ~33 months. Reported every quarter in the backlog disclosure. | Quarterly |