Western Digital [WDC]
Dated events only. Anything undated is marked DATE NOT CONFIRMED and must not be treated as scheduled. No date here is inferred from a pattern and presented as scheduled.
| Date | Event | Source | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | FQ3 FY2026 results released | 8-K 0001628280-26-028878 | The basis of this memo: revenue $3,337m, GM 50.2%, non-GAAP EPS $2.72, FQ4 guide $3.65bn / $3.25 |
| 2026-05-01 | FQ3 FY2026 10-Q filed | 0001628280-26-029054 | Source for share count, debt, and continuing-ops restatement |
| 2026-06-05 | Dividend record date | FQ3 8-K | — |
| 2026-06-17 | Dividend paid, $0.15/share (+20%) | FQ3 8-K | Already past |
| DATE NOT CONFIRMED — imminent | FQ4 FY2026 + FY2026 results. As of 2026-07-29 no 8-K announcing the date has been filed (most recent WDC 8-K is 2026-06-11). For reference only, and explicitly not a prediction: the FY2025 10-K was filed 2025-08-14 and FQ1 FY2026 results were released 2025-10-30. | EDGAR submissions index | THE binding near-term catalyst. Guide: revenue $3.65bn ±$100m, non-GAAP GM 51–52%, opex $385–395m, non-GAAP EPS $3.25 ±$0.15, diluted shares ~385m. Also the first FY2027 guide, the first commentary on CY2027–29 LTA pricing since April, and the point at which Seagate's just-published FQ1'27 guide of $4.1bn can be read across. |
| DATE NOT CONFIRMED | FY2026 Form 10-K | FY2025 10-K filed 2025-08-14. Not announced. | First full audited year on a pure-HDD basis. Customer concentration, the convertible's conversion terms, and any contract/backlog disclosure. |
| DATE NOT CONFIRMED — late Oct 2026 | FQ1 FY2027 results | FQ1 FY2026 released 2025-10-30. Not announced. | — |
| Timing | Milestone | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 2H CY2026 | Next-generation 40TB ePMR delivered (currently in qualification) | FQ3'26 prepared remarks, CEO |
| 2H CY2026 onward | Per-TB pricing to move "more towards the high single-digit range" | FQ3'26 Q&A, CEO |
| In qualification now | 44TB HAMR | FQ3'26 prepared remarks |
| By FY2027 | All major customers qualified on UltraSMR | FQ3'26 Q&A |
| By end FY2027 | ~60% of all exabytes shipped on UltraSMR | FQ3'26 Q&A |
| Into CY2029 | LTAs extend to this point (exabyte-based, with pricing attached) | FQ3'26 Q&A, CEO |
| ~12 months forward | Manufacturing lead time; most POs placed a year in advance | FQ3'26 Q&A, CFO |
| Roadmap, undated | Disk count to 14 disks; no unit-capacity investment | FQ3'26 Q&A, CFO |
FQ4 FY2026 gross margin. The 51–52% guide implies a fourth consecutive quarter of +70–75% incremental gross margin. That is the most extended assumption in the guidance and the first place a thesis break would show. Everything downstream — the 45.0% terminal gross margin, the 34.5% terminal operating margin, the $480 target — is conditioned on that trajectory not breaking.
| Date | Event | Read-across |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 (today) | Seagate reported FQ4 FY2026: revenue $3,629m, GAAP GM 52.3%, FY26 GM 45.6%, and guided FQ1 FY2027 to $4.1bn revenue / $7.30 non-GAAP EPS; raised its long-term revenue growth target to a minimum of 20%. Seagate also raised its dividend and cut debt to $3.6bn. | Strongly positive read-across. Seagate's 52.3% gross margin brackets WDC's 51–52% guide, and Seagate's +13% q/q revenue guide for the September quarter is the best available evidence on the demand and pricing environment WDC is entering. Seagate traded +2.2% on it. |
| 2026-07-29 (today) | MU −12.8%, SNDK −9.5% on the day | The memory complex is de-rating hard while HDD is not. Watch whether the correlation reasserts — it did not today, and that separation is itself the market's statement that HDD earnings are viewed as more durable. |
| DATE NOT CONFIRMED | MU next results; SNDK next results | Both are in the shared comparator set and both have moved the cluster. |