Exzeo Group [XZO]
Catalyst Criteria · type MEASURED · as of 2026-07-29
Rule applied strictly: "Never fabricate a figure, date or catalyst. A fabricated catalyst date is worse than an absent calendar." Every date below is either contractual (stated in a filed agreement), statutory (an SEC filing deadline computed from the filer's status), or seasonal (a fixed calendar definition). XZO has announced no earnings date, and none is invented here.
| Date | Type | Event | Why it matters | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ~2026-08-23 | Contractual | CORE MGA Agreement renewal decision. The agreement's initial 3-year term expires 2026-11-21; either party must give 90 days' written notice to terminate at expiry — so the decision window closes ~23 August 2026. | First observable test of whether HCI intends to keep every intercompany agreement in place post-IPO. CORE contributed $4,957k in FY2025 (2.3% of revenue) — small in dollars, large as a signal. | High — proxy, Transactions With Related Persons |
| ≤ 2026-08-14 | Statutory | Q2 2026 Form 10-Q deadline. Non-accelerated filer ⇒ 45 days after the 2026-06-30 quarter end. | The single most important near-term event. Tests (a) whether revenue breaks the five-quarter $52–56m band, and (b) the Street's implied ~$60.0m/quarter for Q2–Q4 2026 — an 8% sequential step-up nothing in the Q1 filing supports. Also the first quarter to show buyback execution. | High — statutory deadline, not an announced date |
| 2026-06-01 → 2026-11-30 | Seasonal | Atlantic hurricane season (NOAA-defined; peak mid-Aug to mid-Oct). | Direct revenue mechanism, not background risk: TTIC pays $1,200/CAT claim + 10% of indemnity; HCM pays 6% of amounts incurred per CAT claim. FY2025 tech-services growth was driven by Milton/Helene; Q1-26's by Hurricane Ian (2022) completion accounting. Management: "event driven and may not occur at similar levels in future periods." | High — fixed season; outcome unknowable |
| ≤ 2026-11-16 | Statutory | Q3 2026 Form 10-Q deadline (45 days after 2026-09-30). | First quarter to capture the 2026 storm season. Third-party revenue trend vs Q1-26's $2,211k. | High — statutory |
| 2026-11-21 | Contractual | CORE MGA Agreement initial term expires. Auto-renews for one-year periods absent notice. | Confirms or refutes the August decision. | High — proxy |
| ≤ 2027-03-31 | Statutory | FY2026 Form 10-K deadline (90 days after year end). | Full-year related-party revenue %, updated concentration note, third-party revenue for a full year, first full-year comparison against the post-step-function base. | High — statutory |
| 2027-09-28 | Contractual | Catastrophe Software Licence Agreement with HCM expires (5-year initial term from 2022-09-28); auto-renews for 5-year periods; terminable by HCM on 6 months' notice at any time. | The only agreement that is genuinely a software licence. Its 6%-of-CAT-incurred fee is the purest "technology" revenue Exzeo has. | High — proxy |
| 2027-11-05 | Contractual | Tailrow MGA Agreement initial term expires (3 years from 2024-11-05); 90 days' notice to terminate at expiry; 180 days' without-cause notice at any quarter end. | Tailrow was $7,261k in FY2025 and 8.9% of the FY2025 growth. | High — proxy |
| December 2027 | Contractual | Ocala, FL office lease with Silver Springs Property Investment, LLC (an HCI subsidiary) expires (one 3-year renewal option). | Minor. Included because it is another HCI-controlled dependency with a date. | Medium — proxy |
| December 2032 | Contractual | Tampa, FL office lease with Century Park Holding, LLC (HCI subsidiary), 28,400 sq ft. | Long-dated; context only. | Medium — proxy |
| Signal | Where it appears | What it would mean |
|---|---|---|
| Any 8-K amending or terminating a related-party agreement | 8-K Item 1.01 / 1.02 | The Downside Criteria trigger firing. All principal agreements are terminable without cause on 120–180 days' notice. |
| TTIC take-rate movement toward the 8.5% CORE/Tailrow schedule | 10-K/10-Q Note 6; proxy | The central bear mechanism. TTIC currently pays ~25% of premium for services HCPCI pays 8.5% for. |
| Third-party revenue line | Income-statement footnote "revenues earned from related parties of $X" | Total minus that figure. $0 → $500k → $2,369k → $2,211k in Q1-26 alone. The only genuine growth signal on file. |
| CEO 10b5-1 purchases | Form 4, filed daily | Paresh Patel has bought 2,000 shares/day since ~2026-03-18 (e.g. 2026-05-27 at $13.67). Holdings 1,612,013 → 1,672,013. Cessation would be informative. |
| Buyback execution | 10-Q Item 5 / Item 2(c) | $12m authorised 2026-05-26 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. ~1% of shares but 6–9% of float. |
| HCI stake changes | SC 13D/G, Form 4 | HCI holds 75,000,000 shares. A 13.5% float cannot absorb secondary supply. |
| Further 10-Q/A amendments | EDGAR | The Q1-26 10-Q/A restated Adjusted EBITDA / Adjusted Revenue / Adjusted EBITDA Margin tables eight days after filing. A second occurrence would make it a pattern rather than an incident. |
| HCI Group's own results and premium disclosures | HCI 10-K/10-Q, CIK 0001400810 | Exzeo's revenue is a percentage of HCI's premium. HCI FY2025 revenue $900.9m (+20.1%), net income $299.0m. HCI's premium growth is Exzeo's revenue growth. |
| Analyst coverage depth | — | 3 analysts on revenue, 1 on EPS. A second EPS estimate would materially change the consensus signal's weight. |
Per criteria.md: "Time works for a long, so a dated event is not required to own a compounder — unlike a
short."
Result: scored, not blocking. There is a dense, well-dated calendar — but note what it consists of. Almost
every dated catalyst is a contract renewal or termination window controlled by the counterparty, not a
product launch, reimbursement decision, capacity addition or competitive entry. There is no product-cycle
catalyst on this calendar because, as XZO_Research.md §5 establishes, there is no disclosed product cycle.
The nearest and most testable event is the Q2 2026 10-Q, due by 2026-08-14 at the latest. It is the direct falsification test for the Street's implied $60.0m quarterly run-rate and for the five-quarter revenue plateau.