YOU · investment memo
TTM REALISED EBIT margin ($211.097m / $942.414m) held forward - explicitly not an assumption about the future. Cross-check: holding growth at the trailing-4-quarter 17.0%, the price requires a 23.3% terminal margin, i.e. ~1pp of further expansion against +4.7pp delivered in FY2025 alone.
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
A daily close below $47.62 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Fundamental and falsifiable, never price-based. If one is satisfied the thesis is marked dead and the position is retained only by explicit decision.
Named cause: TSA universalises Credential Authentication Technology and digital ID at the checkpoint, collapsing CLEAR+ from an identity product to a queue-position product, at the same time as airport revenue-share renewals re-price against CLEAR. This is not a volatility scenario. The mechanism is specific and the company names it in its own risk factors: TSA "has publicly stated its intent to require all travelers to be processed through CAT machines"; TSA PreCheck Touchless ID is already deployed; state digital driver's licences are live. The commercial logic of a $209/yr subscription rest