Phase Space AI

Catalyst Calendar

Clear Secure [YOU]

Clear Secure, Inc. [YOU] — Catalyst Calendar

Catalyst Criteria is MEASURED — it informs monitoring, it does not admit or reject. Per the brief: a fabricated catalyst date is worse than an absent calendar. Every row below is either (a) a date disclosed in a filing, or (b) explicitly marked as not disclosed, with the historical pattern given as pattern and not as a date.

Dated and disclosed

Date Event Source Why it matters
2026-02-25 FY2025 10-K filed; quarterly dividend raised to $0.15 and a $0.20 special dividend declared 10-K accession 0001856314-26-000006; 8-K 2026-02-25 Establishes the annual February special-dividend pattern that adjusts option contracts
2026-02 (month, no day disclosed) American Express partnership multi-year renewal executed FY2025 10-K, "In February 2026, we executed a multi-year renewal of the partnership with American Express" Removes the largest single partner-renewal risk from the 12-month window. Term not disclosed.
2026-03-10 / 2026-03-24 Q1 dividend record / payment ($0.15 quarterly + $0.20 special) Q1-2026 10-Q, Stockholders' Equity note Already paid
2026-05-06 Q1-2026 results; Q2 revenue guidance $268–271m; FY2026 FCF guidance raised $440m → ≥$465m 8-K 0001856314-26-000013 The guided +22.8% Q2 growth is the first guided acceleration in three years
2026-06-10 / 2026-06-24 Q2 dividend record date / payment date, $0.15 per Class A and Class B share Declared in the 2026-05-06 release; 8-K filed 2026-06-10 Already paid
2026-06-23 8-K filed (accession 0000950142-26-001859) EDGAR submissions index Content not reviewed in this run — flagged as an unread filing, not characterised

Dated by the company but without a day

Window Event Source Test it settles
During 2026 eGates network-wide rollout — 43 of 60 CLEAR+ airports live as of 2026-05-06 Q1-2026 earnings release The only named product with a company-stated completion year. Completion vs slippage is a direct read on execution.
Rolling, 2026+ TSA PreCheck enrolment location additions, "subject to TSA approval" FY2025 10-K Retail locations went 340 (FY2025) → 277 (Q1-2026), a decline the filings do not explain. Watch whether it recovers.
~2030 TSA PreCheck enrolment agreement expiry — "up to 10-year agreement" awarded January 2020 FY2025 10-K, Government Regulation Beyond the 12-month window but inside the 5-year implied path. Two other private entities are authorised to compete.

Contractual schedule — the only hard multi-year numbers in the filings

Airport revenue-share minimum annual contracted fees (FY2025 10-K, Note 18):

Year $000
2026 28,611
2027 17,560
2028 12,935
2029 4,124
2030 2,588
Thereafter —
Total 65,818

The schedule runs to zero. Read one way that is a declining fixed-cost commitment; read the other, the bulk of the airport contract base is renegotiated inside the 5-year implied path, at a point when CLEAR is materially more valuable to airports than at signing. Fixed airport fees already rose +22% in FY2025.

Also disclosed: minimum service-arrangement spend of $2,414k over two years; sports-stadium marketing commitments of $6,018k through 2026.

Buyback capacity: $250,271k remaining under authorisation at 2026-03-31. Q1-2026 activity was negligible — 39,901 shares for $1,238k at an average of $31.02 (the stock has since roughly doubled from that level, which is itself a comment on the buyback's price sensitivity).

Not disclosed — stated as absent rather than invented

Monitoring triggers (not calendar events)

These are the three facts that would change the analysis, restated from YOU_Trade_Construction.md because they are what the calendar is for:

  1. Total Bookings growth falling below revenue growth for two consecutive quarters.
  2. Active CLEAR+ sequential adds below ~200k (Q1-2026: +551k).
  3. Any TSA announcement universalising Credential Authentication Technology or Touchless ID at the checkpoint.