Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
Risk trigger 16% below the memo price
$129.29
Forward E[R] vs a 0% floor
+18.4%
A daily close below $129.29 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Thesis-invalidation conditions
Fundamental and falsifiable, never price-based. If one is satisfied the thesis is marked dead and the position is retained only by explicit decision.
FY27 formal guidance (early Sept 2026) comes in below 16%. The 16–17% early guide is the base of the entire 12-month build. A cut is a direct falsification, not a disappointment.
Organic net-new ARR growth turns negative. It was +9.5% implied for Q4 FY26 ex-Red Canary. Zero or below means the upsell engine is no longer offsetting the new-logo shortfall.
NRR prints below 110%. The last figures were 114% then 115%. Below 110% and the upsell defence against PANW's bundle is failing, which is the bear mechanism.
Total RPO growth falls below revenue growth. RPO at +29.8% against revenue at +25.4% is the accounting- quality support for the whole name. Inverted, the backlog is no longer confirming.
Calculated billings growth falls below 18% on a TTM basis (currently +24.1%). Since ZS no longer reports billings, this must be reconstructed each quarter from the balance sheet — the method is documented in ZS_Research.md §2a and validates to 0.06%.
Impairment case
Named cause: new-logo acquisition failure compounding through a sales-leadership vacuum, while PANW's bundle takes the greenfield. The evidence is management's own, not inferred: two sales leaders departed at the end of FQ3 FY26 (one replaced, one "in the late stages of hiring"); guidance was explicitly made "prudent… during this transition"; the CFO said new logos are where ZS "has not been performing as well as we'd like" and took "a tempered view of new logos going into 2027"; and FY27 growth was guided to 16–17% from 25%. The mechanism of permanent impairment. ZS's economics depend on upse