Phase Space AI

Catalyst Calendar

Zscaler [ZS]

Zscaler [ZS] — Catalyst Calendar

As of 2026-07-29. Catalyst Criteria is MEASURED — it informs monitoring, it blocks nothing.

Every dated item below is either (a) a company-stated date, or (b) an inferred window explicitly labelled as inferred with the inference basis given. Nothing here is fabricated. Where I do not know a date, I say so.

1. Dated and confirmed by the company

Date Event Why it matters Confidence
2026-07-31 FQ4 FY2026 fiscal period ends Fiscal year end. This is a filing-calendar fact, not a guess Certain

2. Inferred windows — basis stated

Window Event Inference basis Why it matters
early-to-mid September 2026 FQ4 FY26 results + formal FY27 guidance ZS has reported FQ4 in the first half of September in each prior year (fiscal year ends 31 July; reporting lag ~5 weeks, consistent with the FQ3 FY26 period end 2026-04-30 reporting on 2026-05-28). The exact date has not been announced and I am not inventing one. The single most important event for this name. The 16–17% FY27 growth figure was an early look given verbally. September converts it into formal guidance or revises it. Invalidation trigger #1 (ZS_Trade_Construction.md) fires here
late November / early December 2026 FQ1 FY27 results Same reporting cadence, one quarter forward First quarter under formal FY27 guidance; first full quarter of Red Canary integrated-SecOps rollout
late February / early March 2027 FQ2 FY27 results Same cadence Mid-year check on the new-logo remediation plan
late May 2027 FQ3 FY27 results Same cadence Falls just outside the 12-month target horizon

3. Company-stated events without a public date

These were named by management on the FQ3 FY26 call. The events are real and quoted; the dates are not disclosed and are therefore left blank rather than guessed.

Event Company's own language Expected window Why it matters
Second sales-leadership appointment "We already appointed a replacement for one of these leaders and we are in the late stages of hiring a leader for the other role" "late stages" as of the FQ3 call → plausibly complete by the FQ4 report. No date given Guidance was explicitly made prudent "during this transition." Completion removes the stated reason for conservatism
Red Canary integrated SecOps product launch "we will be rolling out an integrated SecOps solution"; CFO "taking a prudent approach" to its uptake FY27. No date given Determines whether the $127m of acquired ARR becomes a platform module or stays a bolt-on. The organic/inorganic ARR gap (25% vs 21%) resolves here
Branch-appliance price increase flowing through "we put through a price increase on our branch appliance earlier this calendar year, which we expect to flow through in the next several months" "next several months" from late May 2026 → roughly FQ1–FQ2 FY27 Offsets the memory/storage/processor cost inflation. Watch gross margin
FY27 capex step-up "we expect CapEx as a percentage of revenue to increase up to 200 basis points compared to fiscal 26 levels" FY27, i.e. from 2026-08-01 FY26 FCF-margin guidance was already cut from 26.5–27.0% to 22.8–23.3%. FY27 takes another ~200bp. The one metric that was expanding is now guided down two years running

4. Metrics to extract at each report — because the company stopped reporting two of them

Metric Where to get it Trigger level
Calculated billings Reconstruct: revenue + Δ(ContractWithCustomerLiabilityCurrent + Noncurrent) from EDGAR XBRL. Not reported by the company since FQ3 FY25. Method validated to 0.06% (ZS_Research.md §2a). AV's deferredRevenue field is null for every ZS quarter — do not use it TTM growth < 18% (from +24.1%)
Dollar-based net retention Transcript Q&A only. Retired from prepared remarks in FY26; conceded at 115% under analyst questioning in FQ3 FY26 < 110% (from 115%)
Organic ARR / organic net new ARR Prepared remarks, currently disclosed ex-Red Canary. If this disclosure stops, the ARR series becomes uninterpretable Organic net new ARR growth ≤ 0% (from +9.5% implied for Q4 FY26)
Total RPO and current-RPO share EDGAR RevenueRemainingPerformanceObligation + prepared remarks for the current % RPO growth < revenue growth (from +29.8% vs +25.4%)
Z-Flex TCV Prepared remarks Sequential decline (from $480m in FQ3, +60% QoQ)
SBC as % of revenue Cash-flow statement Rising (flat at 24.7% for two years; the terminal margin needs it at 15.0% by FY31)

5. Events with no ZS-specific date, tracked as exogenous

Item Why tracked Note
PANW quarterly reports The bundling pressure on ZS's new-logo motion shows up in PANW's numbers before it shows up in ZS's. PANW's latest quarter was +31.1% YoY, accelerating against ZS's +25.4% decelerating PANW's fiscal year also ends in July. Covered in reports/companies/Palo Alto Networks [PANW]/
Memory / storage / processor pricing ZS buys appliance and data-centre hardware; the CFO named this as a live cost headwind. This is the same AI-memory cycle documented on MU in this project No date. Monitor MU/SNDK pricing commentary — both are covered here

No catalyst on this calendar is required for the thesis. Per criteria.md, time works for a long, so a dated event is not an admission requirement. This calendar exists for monitoring and for the invalidation gap, and its single load-bearing item is the September 2026 FY27 guidance print.